What demography, history and sociology had been warning us about has started to unfold before our very eyes. More than 250 Hindu families have fled Kairana in Shamli district, West UP due to targeted attacks, especially against women. According to Hindi paper Dainik Jagran, this was revealed by Kairana MP Hukum Singh during an interaction with journalists in the Shamli municpality.

The key points made by MP Hukum Singh are –

• There is an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty in the entire district of Shamli, and many Hindu business establishments are facing extortion threats, particularly in Kairana. Due to this, 6 famous establishments from Kairana have disappeared, and 250 Hindu families have fled the area.
• Similar to how Kashmiri Pandits were terrorized and forced to flee Kashmir valley, Hindus of Kairana are being similarly targeted and persecuted.
• He cited a few cases to explain his point –
  • A minor girl from a Hindu Kashyap family was gang-raped when both her father & mother were out for work. No action has been taken in this case even 6 months after the family filed an FIR.
  • A Hindu woman was gang-raped and murdered in village Akbarpur Sunhaiti, and the police, instead of apprehending the real culprits, arrested the deceased woman’s nephew and brother-in-law. The victim’s family were being threatened by the actual perpetrators to not pursue the case. The MP has personally spoken to the SP (Superintendent Police) for this case, but is not satisfied with the response.
  • The Hindu Kashyap community has completely abandoned the Durbar Khurd locality in Kairana. In Alipur village, the same Kashyap community is facing continuous attacks.

The UP administration and ruling SP (Samajwadi Party) leaders have summarily dismissed the observations made by Hukum Singh, and repeated the ‘all is well’ mantra.

Political storm brewing over Hindu Exodus from West U.P.’s Kairana. Trading & Kashyap community allegedly leaving pic.twitter.com/Y2gOxi2pSc

— Divya Kumar Soti (@DivyaSoti) May 31, 2016

A twitter user @InternalSources recounts his experience of travelling through Kairana town – 

“I still have nightmares about visiting Kairana. I entered UP during Jat Andolan to escape the rioters. First town on crossing Haryana border was Kairana. The moment you enter the town, you feel as if you have traveled back in time. The houses are old, dilapidated. People looked at my car, with a huge OM symbol on the rear view mirror. There was a look of disgust in their eyes, as if I am trespassing. 

Could not see a single woman without hijab. Could not see a single man without mullah beard. Topis everywhere. Everywhere. Green was the colour of choice. No single house was white/pink/yellow. Green was preferred. Urdu was ubiquitous. Not a single Hindi letter was to be found on any shop. Even the directions were in Urdu. On proceeding down the road, I saw an old temple. It was visible from afar. The white building with orange columns, and a broken top.”

Recently, a detailed analysis of the demographic trend in West Uttar Pradesh had shown, using various statistical models, that Western Uttar Pradesh and Southern Uttarakhand are most likely to be Muslim majority by 2061. Quoting from the article – 

“Many areas in India are witnessing major religious demographic changes. One of the regions where the demographic changes are rapid is western Uttar Pradesh. Specifically, we refer to the regions of the Upper Doab (the districts of old Saharanpur, old Muzaffarnagar and old Meerut) and northern Rohilkhand (the districts of Bijnor, old Moradabad, Rampur and Bareilly).

We have shown the various projections of the populations of Western Uttar Pradesh. It shows that the region is going to be close to, if not actually, Muslim majority by 2061. All the models used here are conservative and do not take into account the age-based religious demographics and/or the rising disparity in fertility rates between Hindus and Muslims. For instance, the 75-79 age group has 70 per cent Hindus and 30 per cent Muslims in Saharanpur, while the 0-4 age group has only 50.5 per cent Hindus, and 49.5 per cent Muslims. The statistics for other districts are similar. The coming decades are likely to see faster change in religious demographics.”

But what the above analysis doesn’t account for is the forced change in demography caused by everyday communal violence, religious persecution and administrative apathy. If the trend emerging from Kairana is not reversed, Hindu population in West UP is likely to collapse much sooner than 2061. With every passing year, as Muslim population rises in certain pockets, the religious intolerance and attacks on Hindus will only rise..causing more people to flee. Post independence history from Kashmir, Assam (parts of Dhubri), Mizoram (Bru tribe), Kerala (parts of Malappuram), and many districts of West Bengal show that this phenomenon is not new, and will only accelerate going forward. The constant stream of Hindu refugees from Muslim majority Bangladesh and Pakistan also tell us the same story.

Of 27 urban areas in Muzaffarnagar & Shamli, 18 already Hindu minority. More will join soon. Hindus wiped out in Kithore, Kairana, Kandhla

— Shanmukh (@maidros78) May 17, 2016

And the cruelest cut is that UPA era schemes like MSDP (Multi Sectoral Development Programme) under which minority concentration areas, i.e. blocks with 25% or more of a minority population, get additional Government funds for development act as an incentive for such local deportation. And such sectarian laws and schemes continue even after the UPA’s exit.

Schemes like #MSDP ( a #core2 item) incentivize a ‘local deportation’ a 25% minority dist get funds that 24% cant https://t.co/6EsqjIeW2K

— Reality Check India (@realitycheckind) May 31, 2016