The evolution of Donald Trump’s policies, both during his first term (Trump 1.0) and his subsequent political influence in the years following his presidency (Trump 2.0), has had profound implications for global geopolitics, particularly on U.S.-India relations.
While Trump’s 1.0 policies were marked by a combative, transactional approach to foreign policy and an “America First” ethos, Trump 2.0 – largely shaped by his influence over the Republican Party after leaving office – continued to affect how the U.S. engages with the world, including India.
The relationship between the U.S. and India, which grew significantly during Trump’s tenure, has evolved with a deeper emphasis on strategic collaboration, though not without complexities and contradictions. Analyzing both Trump’s 1.0 and 2.0 policies provides insight into their lasting impact on geopolitics and how they have reshaped the landscape of international relations.
Trump 1.0: A Focus on Nationalism, Unilateralism, and Economic Competition
Donald Trump’s first term as president, from 2017 to 2021, saw the U.S. increasingly adopt a nationalistic, “America First” foreign policy stance. This approach was characterized by a retreat from multilateral engagements, a recalibration of trade relationships, and a willingness to challenge traditional alliances and institutions. On the global stage, Trump’s administration rejected the U.S.’s historical role as the “policeman of the world” and instead focused on reducing the U.S. military footprint abroad, especially in the Middle East, while reasserting economic dominance.
This stance had direct and significant implications for U.S.-India relations. During Trump’s tenure, India and the U.S. saw growing strategic cooperation. The shared concerns over China’s rise and its increasing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region helped bring the two countries closer together. The U.S. and India, both democratic nations with rising economic and military power, found common cause in countering China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its expansionist policies in the South China Sea and beyond.
Trump’s foreign policy towards India was, at times, transactional and personalized. He repeatedly praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government, describing the relationship between the two countries as a “great” partnership. Trump also signed defense agreements with India, including the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) and the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA), both of which enhanced military cooperation and intelligence sharing. Trump’s recognition of India as a key player in the Indo-Pacific region further solidified India’s position in the U.S. strategic calculus.
Yet, Trump’s “America First” approach also led to tensions in trade relations. India, which was the world’s largest beneficiary of the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), lost its preferential trade status under Trump, who argued that India was unfairly benefiting from access to the U.S. market without offering sufficient market access in return. This decision, along with India’s concerns over Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum, led to a sense of unease in New Delhi. Despite these trade frictions, the overarching geopolitical alignment remained positive, with both nations focusing on counterbalancing China’s rise and strengthening their defense and economic ties.
Trump’s first term also had a lasting impact on U.S.-India defense and technology relations. While Trump and Modi deepened military-to-military cooperation, the U.S. also emerged as an important supplier of defense equipment to India, a trend that was likely to continue post-Trump. The U.S. began to export advanced military technologies, including drones and fighter aircraft, to India, thus solidifying its role as a key defense partner.
Trump 2.0: Continued Influence and a Shifting Republican Party
Although Trump lost his bid for re-election in 2020, his influence on American foreign policy, particularly on U.S.-India relations, has endured through his ongoing role within the Republican Party and his vocal public presence. Trump 2.0, while no longer a formal policy framework, reflects the shift in the Republican Party towards a more populist, anti-China, and increasingly isolationist posture. The focus on strategic competition with China, coupled with a desire to reduce entanglements in foreign conflicts, remains central to Trump’s influence on U.S. geopolitics.
Under Trump 2.0, India has continued to be viewed as an essential partner in the strategic rivalry with China. The growing bilateral defense and trade cooperation that began during Trump’s first term continues to thrive. Trump’s early endorsement of a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” which explicitly challenged China’s territorial ambitions, has been carried forward by the Republican establishment, especially under the leadership of figures who align with his worldview.
A key development in Trump 2.0 has been the continued strengthening of the U.S.-India defense relationship. The Republican Party’s stance on India remains largely positive, with key voices advocating for deeper military collaboration, particularly in areas like cyber defense, space exploration, and technology. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which consists of the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India, has gained momentum, becoming an increasingly important platform for countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. The continuation of the Quad under Trump 2.0 and beyond reflects a broader U.S. desire to ensure that China does not dominate the region economically or militarily.
On the economic front, the U.S. and India have also made strides, despite Trump’s original trade barriers. As President, Trump imposed tariffs on several Indian goods, but since his departure, India and the U.S. have worked to expand trade relations, particularly in the technology and services sectors. While Trump 2.0’s impact on trade relations is indirect, the strategic imperative of countering China’s rise continues to push India and the U.S. into deeper economic integration, especially in areas such as 5G, semiconductors, and renewable energy.
The China Factor: A Unifying Theme in U.S.-India Relations
A key feature of Trump’s policies—both during his first term and post-presidency—has been his focus on China. The U.S.-India relationship, under Trump, has been largely shaped by shared concerns about China’s growing economic and military influence. India, for its part, has been increasingly vocal about China’s aggressive posture, particularly along the contested border regions like Ladakh, where border skirmishes escalated under both Trump and Modi’s leadership.
The Trump administration’s “Indo-Pacific Strategy” aligned with India’s concerns about Chinese expansionism, and both countries have engaged in joint military exercises, port visits, and other forms of bilateral cooperation aimed at containing China. Trump’s rhetoric, though often abrasive, helped to galvanize a common purpose between the two nations. The shared understanding that a rising China posed a strategic threat to both countries led to increased alignment on issues of regional security and economic policy. Under Trump 2.0, this strategic rivalry remains a focal point of U.S.-India cooperation, with both countries continuing to invest in the Quad and other initiatives to counterbalance China.
Conclusion: A Legacy of Strategic Alignment with Continued Challenges
In conclusion, Donald Trump’s foreign policies—both in his first term and in his ongoing influence through Trump 2.0—have had a lasting impact on U.S.-India relations. While his first term was characterized by a mix of economic friction and strategic alignment, his rhetoric and policies increasingly emphasized the importance of India as a partner in countering China’s rise. Trump’s rapport with Prime Minister Modi and the deepening defense ties between the two nations were key highlights of his first term. Post-presidency, Trump 2.0 continues to influence the Republican Party’s approach to geopolitics, particularly regarding China and has maintained India’s status as an important strategic ally.
However, U.S.-India relations remain a complex mixture of cooperation and tension, particularly in areas like trade, technology, and global governance. While the alignment on China is a unifying force, the friction in trade and tariffs—particularly during Trump’s first term—has left lasting economic uncertainties. Nevertheless, the broader geopolitical landscape remains one where U.S.-India relations are set to continue expanding, with both nations united in their desire to maintain a stable, multipolar world order in the face of an assertive China.
The policies enacted by Trump, both during his presidency and through his influence afterward, have indelibly reshaped U.S.-India ties, positioning both countries as strategic partners with shared interests in a rapidly changing global landscape. How these policies evolve in the coming years, particularly in the face of a rising China and shifting political dynamics in both nations, will ultimately determine the trajectory of U.S.-India relations in the decades to come.
