These five trends are considered to be the most significant grand strategic ones that are expected to have the greatest impact on the global systemic transition across the coming year.
I’m a Moscow-based American political analyst with a PhD. in Political Science from MGIMO, and this is my second yearly review of the New Cold War after I published my first on the one-year anniversary of the special military operation (SMO) here. I’ve been analyzing the New Cold War every day since 24 February 2022, beginning at now-defunct OneWorld till mid-2022 and continuing at my Substack to the present. Here’s what I learned from doing this daily for my second year straight:
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* Sino-US Bi-Multipolarity Has Given Way To Tri-Multipolarity
The Sino-US bi-multipolar system that characterized the years before the SMO has since evolved into tri-multipolarity as a result of India’s successful rise as a globally significant Great Power. The emerging world order is now shaped by the interplay between the US-led West’s Golden Billion, the Sino–Russo Entente, and the informally Indian-led Global South within which are several independent Great Powers. With time, the system will reach the stage of complex multipolarity (“multiplexity”), its final form.
* “Fortress Europe” Is The US’ New Project For Containing Russia
The failure of Kiev’s counteroffensive prompted the US to consider backup plans for containing Russia after it became obvious that NATO couldn’t strategically defeat its opponent in Ukraine. Poland’s subordination to Germany after Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s return to power enabled that country to resume its superpower trajectory with US support for accelerating the construction of “Fortress Europe”, which will fulfill this goal while freeing up American forces to redeploy to Asia for containing China.
* Western Military-Industrial Wherewithal Is Weaker Than Expected
Germany won’t become a superpower anytime soon nor will the US more muscularly contain China in the coming future either since Western military-industrial wherewithal is weaker than expected as proven by the counteroffensive’s failure and the inability to replenish lost stocks that were given to Kiev. The New York Times even confirmed last September that Russia is far ahead of NATO in the “race of logistics”/“war of attrition”, which explains why the Ukrainian Conflict began to wind down lately too.
* Any Deliberately Calculated Sino-US Crisis Has Likely Been Delayed
Building upon the last observation, it’s likely that any deliberately calculated Sino-US crisis has been delayed till at least the end of the decade owing to the fact that America’s surprisingly weak military-industrial complex requires time to rearm America, replenish its stockpiles, and arm regional allies. A comparatively minor crisis might occur by miscalculation, perhaps due to the Sino-Filipino dispute, but the US would struggle to manage a major one of its own making, let alone fight a major war right now.
* The Broader Red Sea Region Is The New Global South Flashpoint
The primary route for Euro-Asian trade has been disrupted by the Houthi’s blockade and security remains uncertain even if the aforesaid is lifted due to Somalia assembling a regional coalition – Eritrea, Egypt, and potentially Turkiye and the US – to stop Ethiopia’s plans to open a naval base in Somaliland. The interests of all the key Great Powers – the US, China, the EU, Russia, India – converge in the broader Red Sea Region, which thus makes it the new Global South flashpoint to keep a close eye on.
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These five trends are considered to be the most significant grand strategic ones, though that doesn’t mean that others like those taking place in the Sahel or the acceleration of financial multipolarity processes aren’t important. They’re just the ones that are expected to have the greatest impact on the global systemic transition across the coming year for the reasons that were explained. Hopefully my insight can inspire other analysts to refocus their work and consequently improve the quality thereof.
(The article was published on Korybko.substack.com on February 24, 2024 and has been reproduced here)
