War broke out in the middle east on Saturday, February 28, 2026 with (Operation Epic Fury) by Americans joined by Israel (Lion’s Roar). Within hours Iran was bombarded like never before and within a day they knocked off their defence minister, Top generals and supreme leader Khamanei.
Background
Iran was “Paris of the Middle East” before 1979. Shah of Iran was the key to modernize Iran. He in 1963, launched the White Revolution to westernize Iran. Massive oil wealth fuelled the construction of dams, highways, and sent young graduates into rural areas to teach reading and writing. Iran began producing its own cars ‘Paykan’, steel, and consumer goods. By the 1970s, the economy was growing at 9–10% annually. Top-down modernization turned the country into a regional powerhouse.
People can never be happy
Some section of people will always be unhappy whatever may happen. A section of people thought that modernisation was moving away from the Islamic orthodox culture and wanted a regime change. Especially the merchant class and clerics felt Shah’s “Westoxification” was destroying Iranian-Islamic identity. It is not difficult to fool people by their own people. The nation in its frenzy went against the hand which modernised them.
January 16, 1979 the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, left Iran for Egypt for “vacation”/ medical treatment. Ayatollah Khomeini had been living in Exile for 14 years and was set to return to take reins of the country. Though some saner minds did not want this. January 16 – January 31, 1979, period of intense tension followed. Prime Minister Bakhtiar tried blocking Khomeini’s return by closing the airports. On February 1, 1979 after massive protests forced the government to reopen the airspace, Ayatollah Khomeini landed at Airport in Tehran. Therefore, they asked the devil to land on themselves. Foreigners fled, running for their life. I remember my relatives came back without food or water for days- one did not have time to switch off her Iron as she was ironing her clothes!
Secular ‘intellectuals’, students, religious followers of Ayatollah Khomeini united with a single goal to remove the Shah. And Iran was pushed into dark ages by Iranians themselves!
The new regime turned the nation on its head and things spiralled downwards.
March 30–31, 1979, a referendum was held asking Iranians a simple “Yes” or “No” on whether they wanted an Islamic Republic. April 1, 1979, Khomeini declared the victory of the referendum (which reportedly received 98% support) and officially proclaimed the birth of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Again, they asked for it.
Arming of Iran
The nation was pushed towards a military kind of might, focussing on missiles and revolutionary guard much like, SS of Hitler, loyal to the regime.
Iran wanted to make a nuclear weapon but all along said that it was for peaceful purposes.
The trigger point
Iran has enriched 60% uranium (400 plus Kg). This is a dangerous threshold. It provides Iran with “Nuclear Hedging”—the ability to stay a civilian power on paper while maintaining a “zero breakout” status- implies that if the political decision were made to weaponize, the time required to produce a functional bomb (the “breakout time”) would be effectively zero—or a matter of days/weeks—rather than months or years.
While not “weapons-grade” defined as 90%, it is sufficient to cause catastrophic damage and represents the final hurdle in a nuclear weapons program.
Improvised nuclear weapons can be built using 60% enriched uranium. While the device would be significantly bulkier and heavier than a standard 90% warhead, it could still produce a Hiroshima-style yield (15 kilotons). Hiroshima saw 80,000 killed on day one and total 140,000 died within 5 months.
Can the world accept this is the moot question. You may talk of American Israel hegemony; yet disaster is in your face. The Message of their leadership is clear. If they face total collapse they intend to ensure that the surrounding region and the global economy -via oil and trade collapse with them. See what is happening all around the Middle east now. The following countries have been directly hit by Iran targeting US assets- Israel, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Syria with huge collateral damage.
Though the Americans and Russianshave thousands of nukes but they apparently have checks and balances. So do other nuke nations. Iran with its current nomadic regime cannot be trusted for sanity.
“Never-Before-Seen” Weapons- The IRGC has vowed a “decisive and regrettable punishment,” with the use of advanced capabilities. While they haven’t named them, the threat is scary. They are now desperate and can go off the cliff and take many down along with them.
War within
Most Iranians want this regime out. Almost 80% oppose it and just 20% support it. US must have primed the opposing faction which is critical to regime change.
World on the edge
No one knows which way it will go, but certainly it would hit all pockets, Russia may be allowed to sell oil as strait of Hormuz is under siege.
Lessons for Bhartiya
We must ensure that we stand united and support a stable government of today. Some may have difference of opinion but then you have a very heavy price to pay. Keep naysayers away.
