Military dictator Gen Hussain Muhammed Ershad’s anti-Bharat and pro-Islamist Jatiya Party has finally succeeded in forcing the ruling Awami League (AL) in holding an engineered election on January 7, 2024, while it has proved itself to be not a genuine opposition party in the country. Such an opportunity arrived for this party that had made Islam the state religion of Bangladesh thus destroying the secularist fabric of the country’s democracy; as the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its ultra-Islamist and pro-jihadist allies boycotted the election.

Despite Jatiya Party’s inability of winning even five seats without direct blessings of the ruling AL, Western envoys in Dhaka, including the US ambassador Peter D. Haas have unknowingly bestowed unwarranted attention and importance upon this relatively inconsequential political entity, perhaps considering it as a potential ruling party.

But statistics reveal the stark truth about the Jatiya Party’s dwindling influence. Over 86 percent of its candidates lost security deposits during the last two general elections, with a nationwide vote bank now below two percent. Its survival hinges on aligning with larger parties like the Awami League, unable to secure more than a handful of seats without their blessings.

As the next election approaches, the Jatiya Party anxiously has been seeking the Awami League’s endorsement to retain relevance, pleading for uncontested seats, effectively clamoring for an engineered election. This stark contradiction exposes the hypocrisy and opportunism of GM Quader, who initially decried the lack of a fair electoral environment under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership but now pleads for her support to ensure his party’s survival.

Jatiya Party is pressing the demand of an engineered election at a very sensitive time when the ruling Awami League already is facing criticism particularly in the international media stating Bangladesh already has blueprinted an engineered election.

According to Dhaka-based English newspaper The Daily Star, “Negotiations with the Awami League have not yet been fruitful for the Jatiya Party as the ruling party won’t withdraw its nominees from more than 26 constituencies for the JP aspirants to win easily.

“Unless the ruling party withdraws more candidates, there is a chance the JP will not participate in the January 7 national election, said sources in the party.

“The JP, the main opposition in parliament, wants easy wins in at least 31 constituencies.

“AL leaders participating in the election as independents in over 260 constituencies have further complicated the situation for the JP because even if the AL withdraws its nominee in a constituency, the person running on JP ticket will still have to compete against an AL leader who is an independent.

“And this is likely to happen in the 26 constituencies that the AL is “giving” to the JP.

“The only way JP can secure the easy victory it desires is if the AL nominees and the so-called AL independents retire from the race. But the AL has so far made no promises of “interfering” with the independents”.

By forcing the ruling party to allocate 26 seats to Jatiya Party, the latter has evidently proved – it is not at all a genuine opposition party in Bangladesh. Instead, Jatiya Party is actually an entity fully dependent on large political forces such as Awami League or Bangladesh Nationalist Party. It may also be mentioned here that, during 2013-2018, Jatiya Party became a part of the government while it also occupied the opposition bench in the parliament, which had generated a ridiculous theory in the history of parliamentary form of government or even democracy.

Meanwhile, quoting a vernacular daily, BBC in a report said, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova during a press briefing on December 15, 2023 has warned stating, “There are apprehensions that the United States might carry out an Arab Spring-style revolution in Bangladesh after the January 7 parliamentary elections”.

Zakharova further said” “There are serious reasons to fear that in the coming weeks an even wider arsenal of pressure, including sanctions, may be used against the government of Bangladesh, which is undesirable for the West Key industries may come under attack, as well as a number of officials who will be accused without evidence of obstructing the democratic will of citizens”.

The Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson’s statement on Bangladesh has also appeared in Pravda, RT and other media outlets in Russia.

This is the second official statement about Bangladesh from Russia. In November 2023, Moscow criticized the unwarranted hyperactive role of US Ambassador Peter Haas and his interference in Bangladesh’s internal affairs.

“At the end of October, he met with a member of the local opposition to discuss plans for organizing anti-government rallies”, Zakharova said during a briefing on November 22.

“Such actions amount to nothing less than gross interference in internal affairs”.

Washington has built a narrative around ‘free and fair’ elections in Bangladesh. Under this pretext, it announced a visa policy in May. Washington says it does not favor any particular political party in Bangladesh but the ground reality is vastly different.

Haas’ activities have drawn flak but have been welcomed by the BNP and hardliner ally Jamaat-e-Islami, who hailed him as a “true friend of Bangladesh”.

US ambassador Peter D. Haas also held several meetings with Jatiya Party leaders. But his particular attraction towards Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), a party termed as Tier-III terrorist organization by US courts, its past track records of showing affiliations with terrorist groups including Lebanese Hezbollah and its desire of implementing “Islamic democracy” in Bangladesh should ring the bell of Islamist takeover of the country.

According to media reports, in 2006 then coalition government of Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Jamaat-e-Islami named a bridge as ‘Hezbollah Bridge’ honoring the Lebanese terrorist group. The bridge is located in the southern part of the South Asian country, spanning the Batakhali River in an area known as Cox’s Bazaar. Junior communications minister Salahuddin Ahmed named the bridge after the Lebanese group at the height of Hezbollah’s war with Israel.

The bridge was renamed in 2013 by the Awami League government.

Bangladesh’s former Foreign Minister M. Morshed Khan and a senior leader of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) issued several strong statements on the war, calling Israel’s actions “state terrorism” and “religious terrorism” and accusing the United States of sponsoring it.

Although the United States has identified Hezbollah as a terrorist group, and the Bangladesh government has been trying to convince US lawmakers that it is a “moderate” Muslim country, the government has taken no action to revoke the honor. During Hezbollah’s recent war with Israel, several Arab and Muslim countries were muted in their condemnations of the Jewish state and equivocal about supporting Hezbollah.

While Russian Foreign Ministry warns of “Arab Spring” in Bangladesh by the Biden administration through its local collaborators, we though are not sure of the authenticity of such predictions or warning – what we know is, Washington has tried this formula in a number of countries in the world, including Egypt, while it is not unlikely that US President Joe Biden and members of his administration might be in a hurry of coming up with newer stunt when Biden is unable to pour the buckets of desired fund in Ukraine and continue its proxy war against Russia.

For Biden, destabilizing a Muslim nation and creating newer security issues, particularly for Bangladesh’s neighbors – India and Myanmar may work as a strategic benefit. Meanwhile, in a destabilized Bangladesh, militancy and terror gators such Al Qaeda and Islamic State may start frequently popping-up while Myanmar-based Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and other jihadist groups in India may also join jihadist plot thus further complicating the situation.

In this case, if Washington is plotting “Arab Spring” or “Bangla Spring”, it would certainly need support from its local collaborators – especially political forces. Jatiya Party’s desperate attempts of forcing Awami League in holding an engineered election in January 2024 might be a part of this blueprint as it would totally discredit the upcoming election thus paving path for Biden administration in using its tools such as visa restrictions or sanctions targeting key figures in the ruling Awami League as well as civil-military administration.