Bharat just lost a great geopolitical ally This could endanger its dominance in the Indian Ocean One country will benefit: China

Here’s what just happened

The pro-India leader of the Maldives, President Ibu Solih, just lost his bid for re-election He was defeated by Dr. Mohamed Muizzu, who heads a party that is deeply suspicious of Bharat His party also backs a strong relationship with China.

Why is that a problem?

First, we need to understand why the Maldives matters to Bharat.

The Maldives is an island nation located ~2000 km from India, with a population of just 520,000.

It is strategically located in the Indian Ocean, that makes it valuable for Bharat.

Bharat has been the most influential power in the region for decades.

Working closely with strategically located island nations like the Maldives on defence & trade helps secure Bharat’s influence.

Close ties with the Maldives also denies a foothold in the region to powers like China.

That’s particularly important given China’s growing military power Beijing has increased its presence in Indian Ocean, which threatens to challenge Bharat’s traditional dominance Given this, Bharat has built a strong defence relationship with the Maldives.

Bharat has gifted defence equipment (like high speed patrol boats) to the Maldivian Coast Guard. It has deployed its troops to help train Maldivian defence forces to use Bharat-gifted Dornier aircraft. Maldives relies on cooperation with India & Sri Lanka for coastal defence & surveillance.

Given the importance of the Maldives, Bharat has also been a key development partner Bharat has spent billions in building infrastructure, airports & housing in the country It is also the Maldives’ third largest trading partner and a key source of tourism.

Bharat has been an important player in Maldivian politics. It was among the first countries to recognise the Maldives in 1965. In 1988, Bharat sent troops to prevent a coup to overthrow President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom and it was Bharat, that also backed the country’s transition to democracy in 2008.

Given India’s influence, Maldives has typically followed an “India First” policy. This means that Bharat is the country’s partner of choice Current President Ibu Solih is a strong supporter of this policy but, Bharat’s power and influence has become deeply controversial.

A section of Maldivian politicians distrust Bharat’s influence and power. That brings us to the 2023 Presidential election. The incumbent President is Ibu Solih, who has been a clear supporter of “India First”. He just lost a re-election bid to Mohamed Muizzu, who is an Bharat sceptic.

President-elect Muizzu is a close associate of former Prez Abdulla Yameen. Yameen’s tenure from 2013-18 saw increased tension in the traditionally strong Bharat-Maldives relationship. Some scholars suggest Yameen saw Bharat as close to the Maldivian Democratic Party (his rivals).

Yameen tried to move away from an “India First” policy to bring China into the picture. His government signed a free trade agreement with Beijing. Maldives’ debt to China rose to one-fifth of GDP during Yameen’s term. The country also joined China’s controversial Belt & Road Initiative.

Bharat also criticized his authoritarian style of governing. This period of tension eased when Yameen left office in 2018, but in 2020, Yameen’s party launched the “India Out” campaign. This campaign tried to cast suspicion on Indian activities in the Maldives.

The presence of Indian technical defence personnel in Maldives was portrayed as a threat to the country’s independence. This went back to 2018, when Yameen was President and “asked Bharat to withdraw its helicopters & operatives from the country, accusing them of espionage”.

The “India Out” campaign eventually failed. BUT, this issue is far from settled. Muizzu, who is a protege of Yameen, has also echoed his anti-Bharat sentiments. Muizzu has made clear that he wants Indian troops to leave. He has called questioned development contracts given to Indian firms.

With Muizzu winning the Presidential election, Bharat’s interests in the Maldives could face risks

So what happens now?

Muizzu could reverse Solih’s pro-Bharat policy with a pro-China one. This could mean finally ratifying the FTA with China.

He could also ask Bharat to pull out its military assistance personnel from the Maldives. China may also begin to play a larger role in the Indian Ocean. This would worry New Delhi, which doesn’t want to see another Sri Lanka situation develop in the region.

On economics, important contracts awarded to Indian firms could be investigated. These contracts may be handed to Chinese firms. However, Bharat remains a key partner. So, Muizzu may not want to cause too much tension , he could opt for playing Bharat & China against each other.

(This article has been compiled from the tweet thread posted by @MattooShashank on October 01, 2023, with minor edits to improve readability and conform to HinduPost style guide)