As the battle lines are drawn between the NDA consisting of 36 parties and I.N.D.I.A. ( Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance) comprising 26 political entities for the upcoming general elections next year the inevitability of a straight contest between the Congress and the BJP in a minimum of 225 lok sabha seats is imminent.
The loose alliance of 26 regional parties will not provide a protective shield to the Congress as it will have a direct face off with the BJP in almost 41% of the seats in states like, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, MP, Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Karnataka and to a lesser extent in states like UP & Bihar.
It is the outcome of these battles which will decide the future of I.N.D.I.A. and more importantly the Congress.
Another important factor would be the result of assembly elections in crucial states like Rajasthan , Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana & Manipur just a few months ahead of the parliamentary poll. These states account for 84 crucial Lok Sabha seats which will witness mostly direct contests between the BJP & the Congress.
The party which wins these assembly elections would be better placed to call the shots in the forthcoming lok sabha polls.
At present the Congress is in power in Himachal, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka Rajasthan and in power sharing in Bihar. Congress is facing dissent in Rajasthan apart from anti incumbency and it’s performance or the lack of it in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh & Madhya Pradesh will have a direct impact on it’s chances in May General elections which happen just 3 months after these assembly elections.
I.N.D.I.A. will not be able to save the Congress if the latter does not do well in it’s direct fight with the BJP in the above mentioned states & a few others where the alliance partners are in no position to help the Congress.
The regional parties with their isolated and concentrated pockets will not be able to influence the outcome of the Lok Sabha polls unless the Congress puts up a good show in the states where the regional parties have no sway.
Thus the TMC could do well in West Bengal & AAP could win seats in Delhi & Punjab. Similarly RJD & Nitish could notch up seats in Bihar but it would be wishful thinking to assume that they would be in a pole position on their own in 2024.
The fact of the matter is that the Congress will have to improve it’s performance manifold to be in any position to challenge the BJP. It would have to increase it’s tally four fold from the last election to have any chance of forming the government.
To get to the coveted number of 275 odd seats I.N.D.I.A. inspite of a plethora of regional outfits-would need the Congress to get a minimum of 160 seats to be in any position of getting to the magic number.
It would be foolhardy to assume that the likes of TMC, AAP, RJD, SP, JDU & others would muster more than 100 seats amongst themselves in the best case scenario.
So the onus remains on the Congress to lead from the front and lead by example because if it fails to do so the opposition unity and alliance inspite of being “I.N.D.I.A.” will fall flat on it’s face.
