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Thursday, May 23, 2024

The Modi Juggernaut is on a roll for it’s 3rd term

The defeat of the Congress  in the key state assembly  elections  of Rajasthan,  MP & Chatisgarh a few months back and with Nitish back in the NDA fold the BJP is  is set to paint the hindi heartland with saffron in the ongoing  lok sabha polls. 

The key states of Rajasthan, Madhya pradesh, Bihar, UP & Chatisgarh in the hindi heartland along with  fringe states like Haryana, Uttarakhand Punjab  & Himachal account  for almost  230 lok sabha seats which is almost 40% of the total seats in the lower  house. 

The Congress  will have to face the might of the BJP  in most of these seats barring Punjab where AAP will make  it a three cornered contest. In Bihar with Nitish  back with  the BJP the duo have a head start over the Congress.  

The BJP  is in power or in power sharing in all these states barring Punjab & Himachal and thus in pole position  to rout the opposition. 

BJP alone and with  Nitish  in toe in Bihar is set to win between 160 to 180 seats in the hindi heartland if not more and with two big states of Maharashtra & Gujarat on the west coast with  their 74 seats also promising  a bounty for the party the BJP  led NDA is set to cross  the 250 mark in North, central  and western  Bharat . 

There are 131 seats up for grabs  in the southern states and the BJP  is sure to make new inroads to further  enhance it’s  southern tally as compared to 2019.

However if the Telangana  CM Revantha Reddy is to be believed  then the BJP would not cross even 15 seats. Modi’s  power push in the south  has seen him address  many rallies  in Tamil Nadu & Kerela and with  karnataka also being  a bright  prospect  the BJP under Modi is set to prove Reddy wrong . 

The BJP  had won 29 seats in the south 25 of them in karnataka while drawing a blank in Tamil Nadu & kerela in 2019.

 External affairs Minister  jaishankar who has a Tamil Nadu  lineage is confident  that the saffron  party  will win 60 seats from the south this time. 

A haul of 50 seats from the southern states will push the BJP & the NDA tally past 300. West Bengal  & Odisha (63 seats) though  not bastions of the BJP will still  put a few in the BJP  kitty along with  the 25 seats in the north east thus getting  it closer to the 325 mark  if not 350. 

As things stand the opposition  will have to wait  for another  5 years to make another  attempt  to dislodge Modi & the BJP. 

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Aman Gupta
Aman Gupta
Political Editor, Samast Bharat magazine

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