While the BJP is fighting  anti-incumbency and rebels in Himachal, the Congress  has to contend with factionalism and too many CM aspirants. 

In a desperate bid to retain power in Himachal which goes to the hustings  on November 12 the BJP has pulled all stops and is going all out to rewrite history in the State. PM Modi has been in a blitzkrieg  mode addressing  rallies in Solan, Sundernagar and the all important Kangra region.

Home Minister  Amit Shah, national president JP Nadda and I&B and sports minister Anurag Thakur  are all camping in the State to ensure victory  for the party. Himachal’s 37 year old record  where no incumbent  government has been re-elected has forced the party to make an extra effort  in the tiny hill state. Moreover, BJP’S national president  hails from the state as does the I& B and sports minister Anurag Thakur and the onus will be on them to break the shackles  of anti-incumbency which no government  has been able to escape since 1985. 

Prime Minister Modi is leaving no stone unturned to swing the voter in BJP’S  favour and his 3 big rallies within a space of 6 days is testimon to that. 

However the rebel factor could throw  a spanner in the works of party’s  push to retain power. The  allotment of tickets where sitting MLAs  and ministers were denied  tickets has resulted in the mushrooming of rebel candidates who are vying with  the party candidates and could spoil BJP’s  chances of retaining power in the State.

In the 2017 assembly elections 34 seats saw victory  margins of 5000 and below while 20 seats had victory margins of 3000 votes or less. 6 seats were won by a margins of 1000 or less votes. These facts re emphasize  the role rebels could play in making or breaking  governments  with the margins being so narrow. If the rebel candidates  are able to garner even 1000 or more votes it could  alter the equations in many constituencies with more than 18 rebels in the fray across the state for the ruling party.

The Congress  is riddled with factionalism and parallel  leadership and the only thing that is keeping  the flock together  for the moment is prospect of coming back  to power when the votes are counted on December 8. 

The division  of power  by the Congress  high command  whereby the wife of late CM Virbhadra Singh & the current  MP from Mandi was made the party president and Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu  of the warring group  was made chairman of the campaign  committee has done little to assuage the warring factions. 

Leader of the opposition  Mukesh  Agnihotri who has been  at the forefront  of the campaign in the State is also in contention for the chief ministership race – should the Congress  come to power – along with half a dozen other Congress  leaders from across  the state.

The Congress is banking on anti-incumbency and the rebel factor to come back to power  in the state and the inability of the BJP  to convince  the rebels to withdraw their candidature  in favour of the official candidates is sure to help the Congress in the run up to the elections since as compared  to the BJP its rebel candidates are not even one third. 

PM Modi seems to have realised this and has launched himself whole hog into the election campaign. His personal connect with the voter and his long association with Himachal which he invoked in his rallies could do the trick for Jai Ram and the BJP.