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Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Analyzing the JNUSU election results: A deep dive into past and contemporary trends

Jawaharlal Nehru Students Union Elections were held on the 22nd day of March 2024 and the Results were declared on the 24th day of March 2024. The JNU as an institution is highly interesting, being one of the prominent universities in India, 2nd in NIRF University Ranking and the still left bastion of LEFT in India. This JNUSU election attracted attention from all sides, as is happening for the first time after COVID–19.

The last JNUSU election took place in 2019. This JNUSU election is highly reported but least analyzed. In this article, the author will delve into an analysis of past and contemporary election trends in Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) to glean insights into the future of JNUSU Politics. Additionally, the article will explore the opportunities available for the principal opposition within JNUSU Politics and assess the stability of the left bastion for the United Left.

The result announced on 24th March, declared Dhananjay as JNU Students Union President, Avijit Ghosh as Vice President, Mohammad Sajid as Joint Secretary, and Priyanshi Arya of BAPSA (United Left Supported) as General Secretary. The three winning candidates for the post of President, Vice–President, and Join Secretary are Candidate of United Left (AISA + SFI + DSF + AISF). The candidate for General Secretary was Hailed by BAPSA and supported by United Left after the candidature of Swati Singh got canceled considering the 2023 incident of manhandling and misbehaving with security guards. Later the Single Judge Bench of Delhi High Court Presided by J. C Harishankar set aside the rustication from the University on procedural grounds.

The election results attract palpable excitement, making some people happy and some people sad. What I found peculiar about the 2024, JNUSU elections is, that the winners are celebrating and the runner-up (ABVP) is also not disgusted with election results but rather optimistic about performing better in the next elections. The left is viewing this election as securing the left bastion, untainted. The Runner-ups are looking at this election as, United Left (AISA + SFI + DSF + AISF) vs. ABVP, considering ABVP being the principal electoral opponent in University.

The Presidential Candidate of United Left won against ABVP Umesh Chandra Ajmeera with a margin of 922 Votes. The Vice Presidential Candidate of United Left won against ABVP Deepika Sharma with a margin of 927 Votes. The Joint Secretary Candidate of United Left Sajid won against ABVP Govind Dangi with a margin of 508 Votes and the Candidate of United Left + BAPSA, Arya won against ABVP Arjun Anand by a margin of 926 votes. With these trends for the second time, post-2019 ABVP has emerged as the principal opponent of the United Left in JNU. The ABVPians are also bolstering their claim to have crossed the threshold of 2000 votes for the first time.

2024 JNUSU Election Trend

JNU has been a bastion of left-wing politics for a long, except Advocate Sandeep Mahapatra won the JNUSU Presidential election in 2001 with the ABVPs Panel, with a margin of One Vote. In the 2015 JNUSU Elections ABVP Succeeded in bagging the Join Secretary post by defeating AISA Hamid Raja by 27 Votes.  Post 2015 JNUSU elections Left started uniting against ABVP.  The ABVP securing stronghold in JNU Elections is also evident by the fact that in 2016 AISA and SFI fought JNUSU elections together.

AISF decided not to contest JNUSU Elections or the left unity and DSF decided to field its candidate only on one position. In 2017 Students Federation of India (Students Federation of Communist Party of India Marxist), All India Students Association (Students Federation of Communist Party of India Marxist – Lenin), and the Democratic Students Federation allied together against ABVP Presidential Candidate Nidhi Tripathi and United Left won just by the margin of 400 Votes and in the same election CPI affiliated All India Students Federation candidate Aprajita Raja could secure just 416 votes.

The trends of the 2017 election results depict a rise in the ABVP cadre among students of JNU. In 2018, AISA, SFI, DSF, and AISF all four came together to combat against principal opposition, ABVP. NSUI and BAPSA contested separately. The scenario of 2018 was repeated in 2019, with the United Left Alliance against ABVP.

In light of the above facts, it is evident that the Student Wing of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, ABVP is gaining hold in the left bastion, and the left of JNU is insecure, with this fact.

Trends of JNUSU Presidential Elections from 2016 – 2024

The NSUI 2019 and BAPSA 2018 JNUSU Presidential Election Results were not accessible.

This time the Presidential Candidate of ABVP, for the JNUSU election, has been Umesh Chandra Ajmeera. Umesh is a Tribal from Telangana. He lost his father in the Naxal attack. In response to ABVPs choice for presidential candidature, United Left fielded a Dalit candidate Dhananjay for the post.

From the numbers of 2024, JNUSU election results very interesting trends came out. In the first half of counting ABVP was leading on all four posts. The lead of ABVP was seen as a surprise by many. But, in the second half the wind turned ultimately resulting in the left securing all four seats.

The JNUSU elections are turning bipolar. Now they are United Left versus ABVP. The gap between the United Left and ABVP is bridging at a pace. The ABVP for the first time crossed the threshold of 2,000 Votes that ABVP secured in the post of Joint Secretary and nearing 2,000 in elections of General Secretary. The ABVP is getting accepted among students of JNU and the trends suggest that the left if not losing is weakening in its bastion. The volunteers of ABVP seem to be highly enthusiastic about the next JNUSU election and the numbers are alarming for the united left.

Pranjal Chaturvedi

Pranjal is Advocate Practicing at Delhi High Court. 

Pranjal has been State Convenor of INDGenius (ABVP) and Member of Students Council Sharda University

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