“Indian Economy Thriving Even Under Tariff Siege”, India Narrative, November 30, 2025
“India’s economy grew by 8.2 per cent in the July-September quarter, the fastest in six quarters, even as Donald Trump’s tariffs battered its exports. This is no mere statistic. It signals a profound shift: India, long lectured by Washington on trade imbalances and strategic fealty, has forged a resilience that tariffs alone cannot shatter.
The Numbers That Defied Expectation
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation released the figures on Thursday, pegging real G.D.P. growth at 8.2 per cent for the second quarter of the 2025-26 fiscal year—above the 7.9 per cent economists had forecast and a sharp rebound from last year’s 5.6 per cent. Nominal growth, the raw measure that matters to budgets and balance sheets, hit nearly 9 per cent, buoyed by cooling inflation. Manufacturing surged past 9 per cent, construction topped 7 per cent, and services like finance and real estate expanded by double digits. Agriculture grew modestly, in the mid-single digits, underscoring that this boom sprang from factories and urban demand, not the whims of the monsoon.
Tariffs as the Unseen Spectre
President Trump, inaugurated anew in January, wasted little time. By late August, his administration had layered tariffs reaching 50 per cent on most Indian goods—a cocktail of baseline duties, “reciprocal” measures, and punitive add-ons. The casus belli? India’s purchases of discounted Russian oil, its push within BRICS, and a perceived tilt away from American priorities. The United States absorbs a fifth of India’s exports; a sudden duty hike should have cratered shipments, idled plants, and dented growth. Exports to America did slump, by double digits in key months. Yet total merchandise and services exports rose 5 to 6 per cent in the quarter, cushioned by surges to the Gulf, Europe, Africa, and East Asia……”
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