The fifth phase of the 2024 general elections is over and now only the remaining two phases are to be concluded by the first of June 2024. By now, an overall voting percentage of 65% plus (likely to increase) has hit the votes-metre. This is for all practical purposes a very decent participation of voters at an all India level. Some parliamentary constituencies and states have recorded an extraordinary percentage of votes ranging from 70% to almost 90%. Jammu and Kashmir will also be exhibiliting a fine voting turnout after the 6th phase of the election process, which will most probably create a record of its own sorts. It may also go along with the national average of voters turnout ultimately,
It has been generally observed that the voters in the states like Assam, West Bengal, Chattisgarh, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Goa show an overwhelming interest in their participation in the elections while the voters in states like Bihar, Gujarat and Maharashtra show their participation in a moderate fashion. However, people in states like MP, UP, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana will definitely show a far better turnout in their outings when the final phases of polling get concluded.
During the earlier phases of the current elections, a concocted narrative about the low turnout of voters was unleashed by certain vested interests in cohorts with some opposition leaders. They based their narrative on the initial figures of voters’ participation in the first two phases of polling. These elements even raised doubts about the ECI data released to the media. When the Election Commission of India released the updated data in regard to the voting percentage on its website, the ‘prophets of doom’ in the media and the opposition parties started crying foul. They even led the President of the Congress Party, Mallikarjun Kharge to seek clarification from the ECI in this regard.
Thereupon, the Election Commission of India issued a formal press release to clarify the matter. The release showed an increased percentage of votes polled consequent upon the updation of the data received from the basic sources connected with the conduct of elections. It also gave a detailed clarification of the procedure of the Commission in this context and also invited any sort of questions in this regard from the genuine voters and the political parties.
In addition, both the ECI officials and also the former CECs made it clear on the public platform that the ECI dedicated desk in this connection keeps on receiving the latest data from the polling centres (set up in the states/UTs) even after completion of the voting process on the voting day. It said that it generally takes three to four days to make a final assessment about the figures of the voter turnout. However, the ECI continues to update its website on a regular basis so that the latest information is made available to the public. In the current situation, the same process was undertaken by the ECI officials.
The fake narrative also attributed the so-called low turnout to the ‘voter-fatigue’ or to the ‘BJP-fatigue’ in the minds of the voters. Some even tried to interpret it as an indication of costing BJP and its allies their ground electorally. They went to the extent to call it an end for the BJP-NDA in the ensuing phases of the poll. But as the next phases showed a remarkable gradual increase in the voting, comparable to the 2019 and 2014 scenario, the fake narrative regarding the low turnout died its own death. One important factor that the 5th phase of voting brought out is that the overall phase-wise voting is almost identical to the earlier phase-wise voting of the last two general elections.
Here it needs to be mentioned that the officials of the ECI distributes complete information about the number of votes cast to all the polling agents present at the voting centres. Every press release update on behalf of the Election Commission of India carries the following footnote invariably: “Data displayed here are as per the information being filled in the systems by the field officer. This is an approximate trend, as data from some polling stations (PS) takes time and this trend does not include Postal Ballot. Final actual account of votes recorded for each PS is shared in Form 17C with all Polling agents at the close of polls”.
The voting pattern in India needs to be understood in an additional fashion as well. This is the story of fake or bogus voters in the voters-list. This factor is an integral part of the voting process throughout India. It was well explained by the action taken by the ECI, consequent upon the complaint filed by the BJP candidate, Madhavi Latha, in the Hyderabad parliamentary constituency. The ECI reviewed the voters list of the constituency and found 5.41 lakh bogus voters in it. Accordingly, in a swift action, the ECI deleted all these voters from the list.
The deleted voters contained three types of fake voters i.e., voters who were already dead, voters who had since shifted from the constituency and were living at different places outside Hyderabad and those voters who were having their names in more than one Assembly segments of the parliamentary constituency. This situation is not an isolated one and almost every constituency in the country carries such bogus voters in its lists and has thus a huge impact on the arithmetic of the total voter turnout.
Keeping this dimension of the issue in mind, it is safe to say that the percentage of votes polled doesn’t reflect the actual or real percentage of votes polled. In all circumstances, the actual percentage of votes polled is always much higher than the data released by the ECI. There is invariably a need now for the ECI to review the voters-list in future at an all India level in view of the example of the Hyderabad PC. It is only then that the percentage of votes based on ECI data will nearly be reflective of the actual percentage. At this point of time, it remains far below the actual position.
Next, the ECI this time has included two more types of voters in the postal ballot scheme. In a measure welfare initiative, the ECI designated officials pay visits to the residences of the super-senior citizens of +85years of age and make them vote at their convenience. Secondly, they also visit those voters who are physically incapacitated to move; and help them cast their votes at their residences. This is a great gesture of the ECI for which they deserve all kudos. These two sections of voters comprise more than 2% of the total voters at a national level and have equally their impact on the total percentage of votes polled. The details of the postal ballots are generally known only on the day of counting and this ought to naturally further shoot up the percentages.
Taking all these factors into view, it is presumed that the total voting turnout will be almost equal to the last general elections and the data on the counting day would prove and establish this fact. Moreover, during the last more than three months of campaigning, there has been no upheaval of sorts, visible or invisible, politically or electorally speaking, that could impact the voting environment to the benefit of one side or the other. The strategy of the BJP-NDA adopted six months before the elections, in regard to the ‘400 paar narrative’ has done the trick. It has not even once allowed the opposition parties or their alliance to think about their own numbers. They have been whirlpooled by the narrative set by the PM Narendra Modi himself which originally was designed to motivate the NDA-BJP cadres. This was frankly admitted by PM Modi himself in a recent telecast interview to a prominent TV channel.
The leadership of the BJP-NDA was/is well aware of the fact that they had/ have reached their optimum in the states of North and West during the last general elections where they won a great chunk of seats and votes, both. Additionally, half of the constituencies they won there got them more than 50% of votes in their favour. In these circumstances, they needed only to consolidate their position this time and had nothing great to gain; but might have to lose a bit since they already reached the pinnacle. Therefore, they extensively focussed on the Eastern and Southern states of India ensuring to compensate loss of seats in the North and Western states. Most of the analysts and experts suggest favourable trends in favour of BJP-NDA in the states like West Bengal, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and also Karnataka.
With 429 out of the 543 constituencies having already completed their voting process, the game is 80% over. At this point of time, 114 seats are to decide the fate of the contesting candidates on 25th May and Ist June followed by the counting on 4th June 2024. All said and done, the trends suggest a repetition of the 2019 scenario thus paving way for the BJP-NDA again to make a hat-trick of victory.
Most likely, the Indi-Alliance led by the Congress might blame the EVMs as usual with no scope of any introspection. The voting share of BJP-NDA will surely increase while the voting share of the Congress will surely decrease. How that would impact the number of seats is the only secret that 4th June 2024 would unfold. The deal for every side seems almost done, however, the Exit polls on 1st June 2024 in the evening will surely claim to be the ‘Exact-polls’…!
