“Rosneft and Reliance: Modi Balances Oil-Dilemma & Trump’s Ego”, ForPolIndia, October 26, 2025
“India’s deep ties with Russia, built on cheap oil and military gear, looks like is about to hit a rough patch. Because President Trump is pushing PM Modi to cut back on Russian oil. This in turn is promising to make this a messy affair, a high-stakes tug-of-war involving money power and global politics. Since mid-October 2025, Trump has been saying Modi promised to stop or reduce buying Russian oil (35-40% of India’s supply). He’s dangling a big trade deal (cutting U.S. tariffs from 50% to 15%) for this potential Indian action. New Delhi insists no such promise was made, stressing they will do what is best for India.
And then, on October 23, the U.S. suddenly slapped sanctions on Russia’s top oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, and began threatening anyone dealing with them. This led Reliance Industries, India’s biggest private oil buyer, to consider cancelling a major 500,000-barrel-a-day deal with Rosneft. This could, if it comes to pass, can potentially slash India’s Russian oil imports by a quarter.
Why Reliance’s Move Hurts
Reliance’s exit is a big deal. It is almost like a supermarket chain dropping a key supplier. Russian oil is cheap, helping India keep fuel prices low while our economy grows fast. Switching to pricier oil from places like Iraq, Qatar, or the U.S. could raise pump prices by 10-15%, hitting Indian wallets hard. Global oil prices are already up 5% (about $60-65 per barrel). That aside, there is also the very real issue of supply chain issues and tweaking of refineries……”
Read full article at forpolindia.com
