Ever since Pakistan was carved out as a new nation in 1947 consequent upon the division of India, the nation-state of Pakistan engaged itself in a perpetual war with its neighbours and specifically India. The issues of difference included the borders, water, civilizational ethos, historical legacy, trade, people to people relations and lastly terrorism unleashed by Pakistan. It is an admitted fact that Pakistan established itself as a big harbouring state for terrorism for the last five decades. The situation that emerged in Afghanistan in the 1980s made Pakistan a big training hub for terrorism. However, in regard to India, Pakistan initially started terrorism against India in the state of Punjab by training, arming and providing safe grounds in Pakistan to the Khalistani extremists around 1980.
Terrorism brought havoc to the state of Punjab, destabilized the border state internally, created political and social chaos, uprooted families, created acrimony and hatred among the society at large and even tried to negatively impact the whole of India socially and politically. The way terrorism was finally finished in Punjab is largely due to the great sacrifices made by the valiant security forces, social and political infrastructure in Punjab, positive contributions of the nationalist organisations and the steadfast policy of the government of India to deal with the situation. It was ultimately a big defeat for the Pakistan establishment to cope up with.
Pakistan military, political think tank and the terror regime established in the backyard of Pakistan took up their Kashmir chapter simultaneously in the backdrop of terrorism in Punjab under a detailed and well chalked out plan. It did the same thing in Kashmir what it had done in Punjab. In addition, the religious factor was brought into focus in Kashmir with rabid emphasis on anti-India tirade with the initial aim of ethnic cleansing of the indigenous population of the valley -the Kashmiri Pandits. Around the same time in Afghanistan, when the Russian forces were about to leave Afghanistan and were engaged by the Afghan tribals and the armed forces supported by Pakistan that the non-Muslim miniscule minority population therein was forced to leave Afghanistan forever. These hapless unfortunate people took refuge in different corners of the world including India.
Initially it was the forces of Mujahideen fighting for Afghanistan against the Russian forces who led a fierce Russian-Afghan war in Afghanistan. Russian forces were invited by the Afghan government in early 1979 to help restore peace in the country. Ultimately Russians left Afghanistan in 1989 after a ten year stay in the country following the Geneva Accords in April 1988. Later Taliban who rose from the ranks of Mujahideen, got trained and armed in Pakistan, to take over control in Afghanistan. Pakistan considered it as one of its major victories during the 1990s and developed a working relationship with the Taliban headed by Mullah Mohammad Umar. Taliban for all practical purposes was an ally of Pakistan in its movement of ‘jihad’ in Afghanistan and around its neighbourhood. Mullah Omar was the political and military leader of the Taliban and held the title of “Amir al-Mumineen”.
Taliban took over the reins of the government in most of Afghanistan in 1996 through a civil war and its government lasted up to 2001. The leadership of Taliban is also known for providing sanctuary to Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda network in Afghanistan, which paved the way for the US led invasion in 2001. The US forces entered Afghanistan in October 2001, as a response to the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Centre in New York and the allied air misadventures on other installations in the US. The US invasion on Afghanistan was aimed at dismantling al-Qaeda and removing the Taliban regime, which had provided a safe haven to the terrorist group. The war in Afghanistan for the US lasted for nearly 20 years, from 2001 until the US withdrew its troops in 2021.
Pakistan all along considered the Taliban as its important ally. Things changed when Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) emerged in 2007-08 in Pakistan with Baitullah Mehsud as its leader in response to Pakistani military operations against al-Qaeda terrorists in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Pakistan officially banned the group in August 2008 and coined the term “Good Taliban and Bad Taliban” initially for its own consumption. For Pakistan, the Taliban in Afghanistan was a ‘good Taliban’ and Taliban in Pakistan was a ‘bad Taliban’. It needs to be made clear here that the TTP is an off-shoot of the Afghan Taliban but is distinct from them and is a separate entity. Pakistan accuses the Afghan government of providing its soil to the TTP as a safe haven for launching attacks into Pakistan.
When Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Gani Ahmedzai took over as President of Afghanistan in the post Taliban period in 2002 and 2014 respectively, they developed a good relationship with the Indian government to the annoyance of the Pakistan establishment. However, the relationship between the two nations thrived in a very special context of development of infrastructure in Afghanistan. India showed a great diplomatic character in the tough situation in and around Afghanistan particularly when the ties between the two nations weren’t liked by Pakistan.
The state of Pakistan continued with its obsession of terrorism to the discomfort of India, UN, US and the other nations of the world. The UN designated a number of terrorist groups in Pakistan as illegal entities and asked the government in Pakistan to act against them and their ‘leaders’. David Camerone, the former Prime Minister of UK during his visit to India in 2010, termed Pakistan ‘as an epicentre for global terrorism’ and warned Pakistan against ‘promoting export of terrorism to India and Afghanistan’. Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State during her visit to Pakistan in 2011 said to the Pakistan government, ‘you can’t keep snakes (in reference to the terrorists in Pakistan) in your backyard and expect them only to bite your neighbours. You know, eventually, those snakes are going to turn on whoever has them in the backyard’. Nothing changed in Pakistan despite all these warnings and Pakistan continued with its policy of ‘good terrorists and bad terrorists’.
When the US decided to leave Afghanistan in 2021, it left a huge arsenal worth 5 to 7 billion dollars behind them which straightway fell into the hands of Taliban who overturned the Ashraf Gani regime and took control of the government. Pakistan felt satisfaction over the departure of the US from Afghanistan and the event was celebrated throughout Pakistan with great fanfare. Important people from the Pakistan establishment reached Kabul to welcome the new regime under the banner of Taliban and the delegation also included the Director of ISI. Pakistan was of the opinion that it would be able to use its clout in Afghanistan against India and it could also blackmail the US with the alignment of the new power chess-board. But things went in an entirely different direction thereafter.
With the passage of time, when the government of Pakistan asked the Afghan refugees to leave Pakistan for their own country, a great amount of animosity was created among the Pashtuns in the entire areas of Afghanistan and areas in Pakistan contiguous to Afghanistan. The fact of the matter is that Afghanistan doesn’t recognise the Durand line between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The presence of TTP in Pakistan further complicated the issues and they openly attacked the Pakistan army at many places. There are observers who confirm that there is a tacit understanding between the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the TTP and both of them have established links in Afghanistan and Iran. TTP and Pushtuns in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have an extreme soft corner for Afghanistan and are frontal in this regard.
The attack by the Pakistan army on Afghanistan and the counterattack by Afghanistan have formally opened a three-front war for Pakistan. India, Afghanistan and Balochistan are a permanent headache for Pakistan in the current geopolitical scenario. Parts of greater Balochistan in Iran are also sympathetic to the cause of Balochistan and they keep on sending their moral support to the BLA. It can at any time in future get converted into political and military support in case TTP and BLA work in this direction actively. The Pakistan government is well aware of this scenario and therefore is moving cautiously in areas bordering Balochistan and Iran.
The visit of Afghanistan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi to India a couple of weeks ago and his deliberations with the Indian leaders in New Delhi is a great cause of concern for Pakistan. The visit assumes significance when Afghanistan and Pakistan are engaged in varied political, military and diplomatic tussles among themselves. The US administration desires back its past air base Bagram in Afghanistan against the wishes of Afghanistan. There is eagerness on the part of Afghanistan to invite India to train its pilots and also support its developmental activities in various parts of Afghanistan. The government of India is handling the situation keeping in view the diplomatic and strategic importance of the geopolitical scenario in the current context with necessary caution and finesse. The Taliban embassy in New Delhi has been accorded full embassy status by the government of India and Taliban government has also welcomed the upgrading of the Indian embassy in Kabul.
The policy of ‘good Taliban and bad Taliban’ or ‘good terrorists and bad terrorists’ for Pakistan has ultimately backfired and has led Pakistan to an edge. It finds itself in a very tight and tough situation on all its frontiers and also within its territory. The five-decade old experiment of Pakistan with terror, death and destruction within its territories coupled with denial of its sponsorship and export of terror to India, Afghanistan, Balochistan and other countries of the world, overtly and covertly, has put it in a dock. It will take ages for Pakistan to get out of this quagmire of circumstances particularly keeping in view the standard of its political and military leadership. The following couplet of the bard aptly fits the Pakistan state of affairs:
“Gulistan barbad karney ko, ek hi ulloo kaafi tha; Har shaakh pey ulloo bhaithe hain, anjamey gulistan kya hoga”
