The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) appears to retain power with a narrower majority after Bharat’s recent election, following a mixed result by the BJP with 240 seats in the Lok Sabha, 63 short of the 303 mark it reached in 2019. After a decade in office, Prime Minister Narendra Modi became only the second leader after Jawaharlal Nehru to be re-elected for a third term, but with a condition.
PM Modi will begin his third term in power with the realisation that the Bharatiya Janata Party can no longer rely on numerical superiority in the Lok Sabha. To move forward, the party will require the support of two pre-poll regional partners, the Janata Dal (United) and the Telugu Desam Party.
In its second term, the PM Modi-led government faced enormous challenges, including the Covid-19 pandemic, a global economic slowdown, geopolitical instability with wars in Europe and West Asia, the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan, an increasingly unstable Pakistan, and a hostile China. Despite these challenges, the voters have shown faith on the current regime to great extent. This is a rare instance of a government returning to power post the Covid-19 Pandemic as most went on to face severe defeat in their respective polls.
This outcome should broadly maintain the current policies, with the government continuing to prioritise infrastructure investment, business environment reforms, and gradual fiscal consolidation. However, coalition politics and a diminished mandate may make it difficult to pass legislation on the more ambitious aspects of the government’s reform agenda. While coalition governments exemplify the idea of democratic representation by bringing together disparate political entities, they also pose a complex set of obstacles to governance’s efficacy and stability.
Navigating a coalition government entails juggling multiple political agendas and interests. The BJP-led NDA, which has grown significantly in recent years, is an excellent illustration of this. To rule effectively, the coalition partners must find common ground, while having different voter bases and goals. This necessitates an ongoing process of negotiation and compromise, which frequently results in diluted policies that aim to accommodate to a diverse variety of interests. While inclusion is a positive, it also presents a considerable obstacle to ensuring decisive and timely policy implementation.
One of the most difficult aspects of running a coalition government is maintaining policy consensus. Coalition partners’ diverse agendas make it difficult to establish a consensus on crucial subjects. For example, the BJP’s emphasis on nationalism, development, and social justice must be balanced against its coalition partners’ interests, which may include regional issues, caste-based concerns, and specific local demands.
This balancing act can slow down decision-making processes and demand compromises, which may reduce the effectiveness of policies. Nitish Kumar led JD(U) might press the government to grant Bihar the special status, that has been a constant demand of the regional stalwart from Bihar. There is a chance he will also seek a caste census which adds a layer of complexity for the BJP. Such demands represent the socioeconomic objectives of their districts, but they can occasionally conflict with the larger national agenda. Balancing these needs while preserving a unified national policy necessitates astute political manoeuvring and a willingness to engage in ongoing debate and compromise.
Leadership disagreements exacerbate coalition politics. Within the NDA, there is an ongoing need to reconcile PM Modi’s centralised leadership with the autonomy of coalition partners. Disagreements over ministerial portfolios and power distribution can cause friction and disrupt the government’s general functioning. Ensuring that all partners feel sufficiently represented and respected necessitates diplomatic skills and ongoing participation by the leading party.
The stability of a coalition government is always called into doubt. Smaller parties in the coalition can wield disproportionate power by threatening to withdraw their support, perhaps leading to the government’s collapse. This inherent instability complicates long-term planning and may lead to a reliance on short-term, populist actions to keep all parties happy.
A Coalition government poses multitude of challenges for PM Modi in years to come. Coalition members’ regional demands, such as Nitish Kumar’s desire for a caste census and special status for Bihar, and both TDP’s and JD(U)’s guaranteed demand for key ministry portfolios add to the complication.
However, as proven by his performance during the second term, PM Modi has demonstrated an ability to manage these problems. His leadership throughout the COVID-19 epidemic, economic downturn, and geopolitical uncertainty revealed his ability to navigate crises while keeping the coalition stable. This expertise will prove helpful as he prepares for the ongoing challenges of coalition politics.
In the end, the mandate for Lok Sabha 2024 reflects not only PM Modi’s leadership and the BJP’s policies, but also the changing desires and dynamics of the Bharatiya voters. The NDA alliance’s decisive victory reflects a desire for continuity, stability, and imaginative leadership that prioritises development, social justice, and national security.
As Bharat faces difficult global and internal challenges, the unequivocal support for the PM Modi-led alliance represents a strong and unifying affirmation of their vision for a modern, powerful, and inclusive Bharat. PM Modi’s ability to navigate the difficulties of coalition politics will be critical in guiding the country towards continued growth and stability.
– Yashawardhana, Research Fellow at India Foundation
