The announcement of elections by the Election Commission of India (ECI) in Bihar on 6 October, 2025 paved the way for all political parties and groups relevant to the Bihar scenario to seek all sorts of permutations and combinations to kickstart the campaign to convince and woo the voters of Bihar in their favour. The elections to the Bihar assembly would be held on 6 and 11 November, 2025 and the preparations on all sides are in full swing. Hectic parleys must have been held in both the major alliances named the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan (part of Indi-Alliance). All parties and alliances have finalized their lists of candidates. The process of filing nominations for the Assembly elections started on 11 October 2025.

Besides the two main combinations, there are two other important key players in the field this time. One is the Jan Suraj Party led by a former poll strategist Prashant Kishore and the other the Janshakti Janta Dal led by Tej Pratap Yadav, the forlorn son of Lalu Prasad Yadav. In addition to the above, the AIMIM led by Assaduddin Owaisi is also in the fray along with a few groups with tangible hopes this time. While the voters have to make a decision between the continuation of the present dispensation and the change of the government, the parties have also to prove their actual strength on the ground. The results will bring forth the standing of various parties and alliances in Bihar and these would have implications on future politics in the state and also at the national level as well.

However, the directions of a Delhi court to frame various criminal charges against the RJD President Lalu Yadav, his wife Rabri Devi and son Tejaswi Yadav and several others in the alleged IRCTC scam case on 13 October, 2025 has brought an important twist in the whole situation. The directions of the special judge are surely going to impact the outcome of the elections which will be public on 14th November, 2025. Lalu Prasad Yadav is already a convicted person and is undergoing a ten years imprisonment in the fodder scam case. He has made a mockery of the judgement and the imprisonment by getting himself freed on parole due to medical grounds. Ever since his parole, he is actively taking part in all political activities in Bihar and elsewhere and continues to head his party, the RJD. He and his family have serious charges of corruption against them in some other cases too and are being tried in the relevant courts.

Besides the court cases and the fear of judgements against him and his family, Lalu Yadav & his family are facing crisis at three other levels also i.e family, party and the alliance. His family is facing revolt within on a number of issues and the revolt is unabated. His partymen are not happy with the ticket distribution and some of them have either switched loyalties or are agitating against the leadership. Things are not in complete command and control at the level of the Mahagathbandhan where seat distribution among the main parties got delayed for a long time due to disagreements and different perceptions about the political scenario. Ever since the elections were announced by the ECI, the main constituents in the alliance have not met even once officially. It is only the backdoor meetings that are happening in the camp of Mahagathbandhan. However, the Communist bloc is fully in support of the RJD and aspires to have an icing on the cake by getting a good number of seats in the eventual results.

The Congress and its leader Rahul Gandhi who led a 16-day ‘Voter-Adhikar yatra’ in Bihar only a few months back haven’t been greatly active currently in the state. Consequent upon the decision of the ECI to conduct Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral rolls in Bihar, Rahul Gandhi led a campaign against the ECI and made use of all available platforms to try to stall the all important process that was last conducted at a national level in 2003. He didn’t leave any opportunity and forum to make it sure that the Government at the Centre and the ECI are defamed publicly on this issue and brought under the cloud of doubt. He called it ‘theft of votes’ and unleashed a rigorous campaign terming it as a fight against ‘vote-chori’. Congress and Rahul Gandhi used Bihar and elections in Bihar to further the cause of this campaign aimed against the Modi government.

Interestingly, when the elections were announced by the ECI, Rahul Gandhi left for South America and didn’t visit Bihar even once since then. After his return from his foreign jaunt, when the other constituents of Mahagathbandhan wanted to meet him in Delhi, he left for Chandigarh. The leaders of the alliance were compelled to talk to junior leaders of the Congress other than Rahul Gandhi to finalise the seat adjustment leading to confusion, chaos and delay. The impact of the ‘voter adhikar yatra’ of Rahul Gandhi seems to have evaporated rather it has damaged the chances of the RJD which always felt shy of lending support to the cause of ‘vote-chori’ campaign led by the Congress. The people of the state also seem least impressed by this campaign.

Rahul Gandhi in his efforts made several attempts to stall the SIR exercise through legal means as well but was snubbed by the Supreme Court directly and indirectly. The Supreme Court maintained that the ECI was constitutionally empowered to conduct the process as and when it deemed fit. Secondly, the Apex Court directed the applicants to place their complaints on the table of the ECI for their redressal. The ECI a number of times asked Rahul Gandhi and Congress to file their complaints before them on affidavits which both didn’t do till date knowing well that the arguments they were making are not based upon facts. This has also overall seriously damaged the prospectus of the Mahagathbandhan in the ensuing elections in the state of Bihar and all constituents of the alliance are aware of this.

The announcement of Prashant Kishore of Jan Suraj Party in regard to his astonishing decision not to contest elections from any seat is surely a setback to his party members. This shows his lack of confidence and actual realisation of his standing in the current socio-political scenario. He has gone on a backfoot despite spending a lot of money and time for the last one year having an eye upon these assembly elections. He continued to be living in an illusion that he was a master of making anyone and everyone win elections. The elections in Bihar are going to expose him fully this time. AIMIM is banking upon the Muslim votes particularly in eastern Bihar where Muslim population has grown at an alarming rate due to the illegal immigration. Tej Pratap Yadav and his JJD have attracted rebels from RJD and the other constituents of Mahagathbandhan but it has a very tough fight at hand to prove its credentials at the hustings.

The NDA led by PM Narendra Modi at the national level and Nitish Kumar, CM in Bihar is in a better position comparatively. Though this alliance has to face the anti-incumbency factor also in a limited manner yet the constituents of the alliance have shown political maturity in the distribution of seats and the statements following the announcement of arrangement. They have an additional benefit this time compared to the 2020 scenario. The LJPR led by Chirag Paswan, Union Minister, having a vote bank of around 6% in the state is a formal part of the alliance this time. This arrangement worked hugely in favour of the NDA in the Lok Sabha elections last year when the alliance got 30 out of 40 seats in the state with an aggregate of around 50% votes in its favour.

ECI after a long time took a bold decision this time to conduct the polls in the state in two phases only which otherwise would be spread in six or seven phases earlier. This definitely speaks highly of the law and order situation in the state. The working of the state government hasn’t earned any major negative perception among the people over the last five years. Instead social welfare measures particularly in favour of the womenfolk in the state have created a positive environment for the NDA. The government announced schemes like ‘Ladli-Behna’ in Bihar also and that will surely have its impact on the psyche of the women voters at the time of voting. Women voters in Bihar traditionally take part in the voting in large numbers which is an additional point in favour of the NDA.

Most of the surveys and opinion polls for the last two months consistently show NDA in a comfortable lead. There are surveys that give the NDA around 50% votes and the Mahagathbandhan 40% votes. In such a scenario, the number of seats in favour of the two alliances is anybody’s guess. Some opinion polls predict 150 plus seats for the NDA and 80 plus seats in favour of the Mahagathbandhan. However, opinion polls and the exit-polls aren’t the ‘exact polls’ and can’t be taken for granted. Nitish Kumar continues to enjoy the image of ‘sushasan-babu’ to some extent with full support of the BJP and the other constituents of the NDA. An additional benefit in favour of the NDA is that it has a declared face of the future CM in it while all the other alliances particularly the Mahagathbandhan are silent on the issue. Keeping in view the importance of these elections, they are truly an acid test for all alliances and parties in Bihar.