Finally, the whole process of voting in regard to the general elections for 2024 is going to be concluded by the end of this week on Ist of June. Indeed this was the most laborious and long process which lasted for more than two to three months with effect from the date of the announcement of elections by the Election Commission of India. The intense heat wave throughout the length and breadth of the country made the whole exercise quite tough and tricky. All eyes will now be focussed on 4th June 2024, the day on which the counting and the results would take place. The nature of the results will surely unfold a number of dimensions of the current political climate in the country. One important dimension pertains to the ‘credibility’ of the opposition parties and their alliances in the states and at the national level.
There is a common narrative in circulation that in order to make a democracy strong there should also be a vibrant and strong opposition. The fact of the matter is that it is neither the duty nor the job of the ruling side to strengthen the opposition. It is for the opposition to transform itself positively and consolidate its position both qualitatively and quantitatively. This election will surely determine the inherent strength, position and status of the opposition at grass-root levels in India. Unfortunately for the opposition, there is no common binding force among various contributing parties in it except the factor of “hate BJP-hate Modi”. This is the single most LCM of the opposition called Indi-Alliance.
Gone are the days when the opposition in India would have veterans like Jai Prakash Narayan, Morarji Desai, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Charan Singh, L.K.Advani, George Fernandez, Madhu Dandavate, Prakash Singh Badal, Karunanidhi, Biju Patnaik, Nanaji Deshmukh, Jyoti Basu, M.M.Joshi, Karpuri Thakur and Kidarnath Sahni as the frontal face of it at the national level. Currently, there is virtually no opposition at the national level. All major and minor political parties and groups have been squeezed into regional outfits and parties. The irony is that the oldest political parties of India, the Congress party and the CPI/CPM, have also been reduced into inconsequential and uninfluential regional forces. They have lost their sheen and the mass appeal both.
The Congress party has dented its base in the five biggest (electorally) states of India, ie UP, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Bihar and Tamil Nadu-Pondicherry. In all these states, it is wholly and solely dependent upon the local regional outfits to get it accommodated in their scheme of things. Congress has lost its capability to fight on its own in all these five states. In West Bengal, it is fighting for its mere survival in absence of any agreement with the TMC. Ironically, these five important states constitute 250 seats in the Lok Sabha, which is a huge 46% of the total strength of the House.
Currently, the opposition on the whole suffers from a number of weaknesses and the prominent among them are its brittle ideological commitment, incapable national leadership, riff raff kind of organisational mechanism and capacity, incoherent political narrative and disconnect with the common people due to the lack of lower rung influential leaders on the ground. In addition to this, it has continuously and consistently given a feeling for the last ten years that it no longer believes in responsible behaviour consistent with the parliamentary traditions and parlance.
It has rarely contributed to the debates in and outside the parliament and the legislatures over the last ten years that could make a real impact on the minds of the people. It has surely failed in its duty to espouse the people’s cause in the manner that could have compelled the government to take the opposition seriously on matters of concern. It has tarnished its own image in the eyes of the public by resorting to unpopular acts and always taking a confrontationist approach.
It is a major tragedy with the opposition in India that almost all these parties are fundamentally dynastic parties. Their family feudal politics and charges of corruption haven’t impressed the younger generations of the day. These parties and their leaders heavily bank upon their past than focussing on the current situation and creating appropriate responses. Their intellectual contribution to their ideology, political narrative and the media-connect are no match to the BJP-NDA’s responses to the socio-political scenario. Leadership led by the Congress looks extremely mediocre, unimpressive and average. In a nutshell, they have proved out of date and out of circulation.
The 2024 general elections have exposed them very badly and the final results on June 4th will have the potential to bring them further down from the position they have been occupying for so long now. They refuse to accept the fact that their downfall was gradual and instead they remain obsessed with blaming PM Modi for everything they find bad and unpalatable. Most of the time they were taken unawares of their slow & steady downfall. The principal party, the Congress, that used to get more than 40% of the votes in the general elections with 300+ seats uptil 1984 is unable to get even 20% of votes and 55 seats in the Lok Sabha now. It is fraught with the danger of touching 15% votes this time keeping in view that it was fighting 328 seats only, the lowest in its history.
This time most of the regional parties are fighting their own battles of survival and existence throughout the length and breadth of the nation. Right from Jammu and Kashmir to Tamil Nadu, in the light of their defections, divisions and the possible threat of getting decimated, all the political parties in the opposition camp face very difficult and unpleasant conditions. The opposition as a unit has lost its ‘credibility’ very badly and might lose it further in case the results don’t go in their favour on 4th June.
The leaders of opposition by their speeches and statements, policy and strategy, actions and reactions during the whole campaigning this time have brought a lot of disrepute and disrespect to their camp. The downfall of their credibility has become its biggest liability. Statements coming from abroad in their favour and particularly from Pakistan and US have further damaged their credibility to the most worrying extent. Flip flop on issues and concerns in regard to corruption and other criminal and defamation cases in courts throughout by the opposition leaders has also been detrimental to their position and status as responsible representatives of people.
The unabated attack by them on institutions and constitutional bodies like Election Commission of India, ED, CBI, NIA and the law enforcing agencies have been quite unimpressive and uninspiring. It leads the public to believe that the leaders of opposition are evasive and keep on attacking the institutions and the government to avoid being transparent and answerable. The criticism of the EVMs by them is believed as an attempt on their behalf to hide their failure to win the heart of the public and thus the elections.
Last but not the least, all leaders of the opposition find themselves unequal to the task to put up a formidable challenge before the Prime Minister Narendra Modi. While the biggest asset of the Prime Minister is his own credibility, the biggest liability of the opposition is also their ‘own credibility’ which is at its lowest for any opposition in the recent political history of India….!
