Who is the real aggressor in Ukraine? East or West!

Biden and the EU have barraged Russia with a slew of measures and embargoes apart from arming Ukraine with loads of ammunition and firepower in response to what they perceive is the invasion of Ukraine which was a part of the erstwhile  Soviet Union  – before the disintegration of USSR – for close to seven decades
comedian turned President Yelenskyy at the insistence and provocation from President Biden was vociferous in his  clamour  for a NATO  membership inspite of repeated warnings from Vladimir Putin.

This was akin to Russia armouring Mexico – which abutts America with missiles and artillery and imposing  an oil & gas embargo  on the west & Europe or Vladimir Putin moving his sphere of influence till Germany half of which was part of the Warsaw pact during the cold war just over 3 decades back.

The eastern push of the West particularly America taking NATO beyond the  red line  and into the erstwhile Warsaw pact  corridor  and beyond into the erstwhile  Soviet Union is the genesis of the current  conflict which is unfolding. 

The Russian offensive did not happen  in a jiffy and took a long time coming when Biden and Yelensky were unrelenting in their clamour for a NATO membership  which  was unacceptable  to Putin and Russia. 

However the instigation of the West under its current leadership and the actions  of an immature Ukranian  President who upped the ante for a NATO membership  inspite of repeated warnings from Russia  has led to this crisis. 

The  cold war era saw a clear line between the NATO & Warsaw pact nations and the Brandenburg gate was the euphemism  for the Iron curtain  that separated  East and West Berlin and prevented a third world War inspite of the frosty  relationship  of the two prevailing  superpowers  of that era namely America  and the Soviet Union. Since then the NATO  expansion has engulfed all Warsaw pact nations namely Poland, Czechoslavakia, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary to name a few.

However it is pertinent  to note that the  erstwhile Warsaw pact or Russia have not ingressed into any NATO country since all these decades apart from its takeover of Crimea in 2014. America and NATO  have expanded  beyond their defined boundaries into what were over 3 decades back a part of the Warsaw  pact including Poland,  Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary to name a few.

Bharat would certainly take action and has if some outside power were to arm countries bordering it like Pakistan, Nepal , Burma or Sri Lanka. Russian plight is the same as Putin is buttressed  between a rock and a hard place.The gradual shift of all Warsaw pact allies into the NATO fold through the latter’s lurement had the makings of a conflict which is now unfolding. 

Both America and Russia, particularly the former, have been guilty of being global policemen and making a hash of countries  and situations  through their reckless and wrong interventions be it in Vietnam,  Afghanistan, Nicaragua, Syria, Iraq to name a few. 

However the transgression  of the West particularly America and NATO into what Russia  believes is its  domain and area of influence has brought  to two superpowers  face to face. The American congress  has approved a 12 billion  dollar package for Ukraine  including military hardware which amounts to launching a proxy war though  President  Biden in his press briefing has said that any closure of Ukranian airspace – as being demanded by Zelenskyy- is tantamount to  inviting world War 3. 

Three weeks into the war President  Biden has banned Russian  energy imports and stripped Russia  of the MFN (Most Favored Nation) status. Russian  Vodka, seafood and diamonds have been barred from the US and many US giants and conglomerates have shut shop in Russia under pressure  from the White House  leaving behind billions of dollars of assets and money which they could  not retrieve.

While oil & gas prices in Russia are sure to nosedive because  of sluggish  exports the American  public is bracing itself  for increasing gas prices (over $4 a gallon) and feeling the heat at the pump.

Europe and the European  Union plan to get rid of their  dependence on Russian  energy by the end of this year which is easier said  than done. Energy starved Europe imports 40% of it’s  gas & 25% of its crude from Russia which will be hard to replace in the immediate future.

No one knows  when the war will end but one thing is sure the economies of all warring factions and those of the onlookers are in for a real hammering.