Biden and the EU have barraged Russia with a slew of measures and embargoes apart from arming Ukraine with loads of ammunition and firepower in response to what they perceive is the invasion of Ukraine which was a part of the erstwhile Soviet Union – before the disintegration of USSR – for close to seven decades
comedian turned President Yelenskyy at the insistence and provocation from President Biden was vociferous in his clamour for a NATO membership inspite of repeated warnings from Vladimir Putin.
This was akin to Russia armouring Mexico – which abutts America with missiles and artillery and imposing an oil & gas embargo on the west & Europe or Vladimir Putin moving his sphere of influence till Germany half of which was part of the Warsaw pact during the cold war just over 3 decades back.
The eastern push of the West particularly America taking NATO beyond the red line and into the erstwhile Warsaw pact corridor and beyond into the erstwhile Soviet Union is the genesis of the current conflict which is unfolding.
The Russian offensive did not happen in a jiffy and took a long time coming when Biden and Yelensky were unrelenting in their clamour for a NATO membership which was unacceptable to Putin and Russia.
However the instigation of the West under its current leadership and the actions of an immature Ukranian President who upped the ante for a NATO membership inspite of repeated warnings from Russia has led to this crisis.
The cold war era saw a clear line between the NATO & Warsaw pact nations and the Brandenburg gate was the euphemism for the Iron curtain that separated East and West Berlin and prevented a third world War inspite of the frosty relationship of the two prevailing superpowers of that era namely America and the Soviet Union. Since then the NATO expansion has engulfed all Warsaw pact nations namely Poland, Czechoslavakia, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary to name a few.
However it is pertinent to note that the erstwhile Warsaw pact or Russia have not ingressed into any NATO country since all these decades apart from its takeover of Crimea in 2014. America and NATO have expanded beyond their defined boundaries into what were over 3 decades back a part of the Warsaw pact including Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary to name a few.
Bharat would certainly take action and has if some outside power were to arm countries bordering it like Pakistan, Nepal , Burma or Sri Lanka. Russian plight is the same as Putin is buttressed between a rock and a hard place.The gradual shift of all Warsaw pact allies into the NATO fold through the latter’s lurement had the makings of a conflict which is now unfolding.
Both America and Russia, particularly the former, have been guilty of being global policemen and making a hash of countries and situations through their reckless and wrong interventions be it in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Nicaragua, Syria, Iraq to name a few.
However the transgression of the West particularly America and NATO into what Russia believes is its domain and area of influence has brought to two superpowers face to face. The American congress has approved a 12 billion dollar package for Ukraine including military hardware which amounts to launching a proxy war though President Biden in his press briefing has said that any closure of Ukranian airspace – as being demanded by Zelenskyy- is tantamount to inviting world War 3.
Three weeks into the war President Biden has banned Russian energy imports and stripped Russia of the MFN (Most Favored Nation) status. Russian Vodka, seafood and diamonds have been barred from the US and many US giants and conglomerates have shut shop in Russia under pressure from the White House leaving behind billions of dollars of assets and money which they could not retrieve.
While oil & gas prices in Russia are sure to nosedive because of sluggish exports the American public is bracing itself for increasing gas prices (over $4 a gallon) and feeling the heat at the pump.
Europe and the European Union plan to get rid of their dependence on Russian energy by the end of this year which is easier said than done. Energy starved Europe imports 40% of it’s gas & 25% of its crude from Russia which will be hard to replace in the immediate future.
No one knows when the war will end but one thing is sure the economies of all warring factions and those of the onlookers are in for a real hammering.