For months the Western propaganda machine told us Russia had miscalculated, faced military humiliation, would suffer a huge economic crisis, and Putin would fall. Then the non-stop triumphalism began to wane, news became scarce. From wall to wall coverage, the BBC fell silent.

In fact, the West has miscalculated on an epic scale with the most profound and far-reaching consequences. How could the West have got it so wrong? Because they think the world is still somehow dominated by the West as it was for so long. That is history not the present.

This has been an extraordinary demonstration of how out of touch the US and Europe now are with the rest of the world (ie, the great majority of countries). Most do not share the Western view of the war. Bharat has refused to do the West’s bidding. ASEAN and China likewise.

The rise of the developing world over the last 40 years has transformed the world. It is independent-minded and often leans towards China. The voice of the West matters less and less. And yet the West seems incapable – both right and left – of recognising this.

Russia will not be defeated but Ukraine will be. The West misled it. At the very least it will be dismembered. The Western defeat in Ukraine will join Iraq, Afghanistan and the 2008 financial crisis as famous landmarks in Western decline.

Europe’s economy will shrink. Living standards will fall sharply. Europe will be riven with divisions. Governments will fall. The continent faces very dark times. The crisis will hasten Europe’s growing marginality. It will pay a huge price for its Atlanticist turn.

A prisoner of ways of thinking that belong to a previous era of Western dominance, the West inhabits a world that no longer exists. The West has its front to the past and its back to the future. It is out of time. And every miscalculation it makes only accelerates its decline.

This article has been compiled from the tweet thread originally tweeted by Martin Jacques (@martjacques) on July 5, 2022.