US prognosis about an imminent Russian invasion into Ukraine finally came true as Putin launched a military blitzkrieg from three sides as a weak US President along with his NATO allies imposed fresh sanctions falling short of banning energy imports as the gas prices in America touched 3.5 dollars a gallon.
Ahead of the offensive Putin declared that the action was necessary after the US and its allies crossed Russia’s “red lines,” by expanding NATO and said that the goal of the operation was the demilitarisation of Ukraine.
Zelensky was left alone to defend his country as he made a wailing appeal to the western powers for help as the Kremlin pounded Ukraine’s military assets and airfields grounding its airpower which in military parlance is called “SEAD” suppression of enemy’s air defence.
As zelensky appealed for peace Putin held an olive branch for talks in Minsk the capital of Belarus drawing parallels with the earlier Minsk agreement. With Russian troops closing in on Kyiv the fall of the Ukrainian capital is a foregone conclusion.
The resolution at the UN condemning Russia was vetoed as expected as China and Bharat abstained.
For the moment Putin seems to be in control having already factored in the sanction part and seems to have rightly guessed the US and NATO response which will not go beyond sanctions.
Russia is sitting pretty at the moment with 650 billion dollars of reserves and with the oil and gas prices hitting the roof (crude 105 $ a barrel) Russia stands to gain in the immediate aftermath of the attack on its neighbor.
Russia has still not been barred from the Belgium based financial banking network SWIFT and it’s oil and gas supply to Europe are still on though the Nordic stream 2 pipeline in the underbelly of the Baltic has been provisionally decertified. An energy starved Europe cannot survive without Russian gas for long and it would be interesting to see the extremity of the sanctions imposed by the EU.
All eyes are on what Putin does once kyiv falls. Zelensky has still not fled and could be taken hostage with pro Russian arrangement in place in kyiv. With the eastern objective also met by the carving of 2 independent province’s namely Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbas region Putin could have met his immediate objective of keeping NATO at bay and putting Ukraine on a leash.
The economic sanctions and freezing of assets and bank accounts of Russian oligarchy could have some ripples in the Kremlin but Putin will take care of that.
Russia China ties are set to strengthen further as trade between the two giants increases giving rise to a new world order akin to the cold war era. NATO’s eastward expansion has been halted and it will have to be further strengthened to counter a more defiant , stubborn and pugnacious Russia under Putin.
Russia and China have a common foe in America and their partnership is sure to get stronger with Pakistan piggybacking on both much to the chagrin of Bharat. Both China and Pakistan are sure to increase their belligerence towards Bharat whose neutrality and fine balancing act will be perceived and interpreted differently by the West and Russia.
The US and France want Bharat to do more vis a vis their opposition to Russia but Bharat has just played it right by abstaining which Russia could interpret as a vote in its favour.
With a weak US President at the helm who has been ridiculed by his predecessor (Trump has described Putin a genius after his Ukraine adventure) playing to his domestic audience and sticking to his policy of no American boots on foreign soil after his Afghanistan fiasco, a Russia China collaboration looks formidable and threatening for the West.
Ukraine expected much more from the US but Biden was just a spectator as Russia over ran Ukraine reminiscent of his inaction in Afghanistan when he was a fence sitter watching Taliban runover Afghanistan. For the moment it’s Putin who is calling the shots while the world watches.
Biden though could have another test coming his way with the Dragon thinking about taking over Taiwan. Will he resurrect his already sagging image or will he act for a change.