The silhouette  of the Kangra fort against  the setting sun is a sight to behold as it stands majestically beckoning everyone. But it’s the political  parties and their leaders who are making a beeline for Kangra in election bound himachal  knowing fully well that if they conquer  Kangra they conquer Himachal.  

History is testament  to the fact that whichever party has won the majority  of the 15 seats in Kangra district has gone on to form the government in the hill state. Thus in 2017 the BJP  won 11 of the 15 seats to romp home victorious while in 2012 it was the Congress’s  turn to climb on the victory  podium  as it won 10 seats  in Kangra which has an electorate of 13.7 lakhs which is the highest in the State. 

Kangra  is also the biggest  swing state in Himachal  as it’s  electorate  have rarely taken the middle path or given a fractured  mandate. The Kangra voter has either catapulted a party to power or dumped it to the ground and they have been pretty consistent in this.

With both parties being riddled with factionalism and rebels in the fray it will be interesting to see which party emerges unscathed at the hustings in Kangra because that party is sure to rule the state for the next five years.

Amongst the 91 candidates in the fray for 15 seats in Kangra their are rebel candidates from both the Congress and the BJP but it’s the ruling party which is facing dissidence in crucial seats such as  Fatehpur, Dharamshala, Indora, Kangra and Dehra . The Congress  just has one rebel candidate in Sullah and thus is better placed in Kangra  district  than the BJP. 

The rebels are sure to act as spoilsport for sitting cabinet ministers like Rakesh Pathania in Fatehpur whose constituency has been changed from Nurpur to Fatehpur and given the open dissent the BJP would be lucky to retain even one of the two with  Kirpal Parmar former Rajya Sabha MP from the BJP pitching in as an independent. In Dharamshala the sitting BJP  MLA Vishal  Nehria  was denied the party ticket making him stand as an independent representing the strong Gaddi community. 

The story is no different  in Indora, Dehra and Kangra where the BJP  high command  was unable to convince the rebels to withdraw  from the contest and it could undermine the party’s  chances in kangra district and eventually  the state.

Fatehpur was won by the Congress just one year back in the bypolls. The swapping of constituencies of sitting MLA’S by the BJP in key assembly segments of Nurpur, Fatehpur, Jwalamukhi and Dehra in district Kangra apart from Shimla urban where sitting MLA and cabinet minister Suresh Bhardwaj was made to vacate his seat in favour of greenhorn Sanjay sood are sure to effect the BJP’S chances though the core committee of the BJP incharge of ticket allotments would think otherwise. 

Suresh Bhardwaj has now been given the formidable task of dislodging the current MLA Anirudh from Shimla rural which is a known congress bastion. 

But it is Kangra and its electorate  who will decide which way the pendulum  swings in Himachal though some pollsters are of the view  that Kangra, Mandi and Shimla which  send almost  50% of the total  strength  of the Vidhan Sabha-33 out of 68 MLA’S  to the assembly – are the deciding districts. 

Coming back to Kangra  in 2007 when Dhumal  became the CM the BJP won 9 seats from Kangra and with  the support  of 1 BSP MLA  it was able to form the government. 

However  just like in 2012 in 2003 the Congress  won over 10 seats from the nerve centre of himachal politics (Kangra) and wrested power from the BJP. Thus all eyes will be on the Kangra and the way the district votes.

Going by the past record of the state and the district it’s  the Congress’s turn to win Kangra and through it the state. is firmly in favour of the Congress  to come back to power but with the likes of J.P Nadda, Anurag Thakur, current CM Jai Ram Thakur and above all Prime Minister Narendra Modi touring the state aggressively the tables could  be turned on the Congress in the tiny hill state.