The silhouette of the Kangra fort against the setting sun is a sight to behold as it stands majestically beckoning everyone. But it’s the political parties and their leaders who are making a beeline for Kangra in election bound himachal knowing fully well that if they conquer Kangra they conquer Himachal.
History is testament to the fact that whichever party has won the majority of the 15 seats in Kangra district has gone on to form the government in the hill state. Thus in 2017 the BJP won 11 of the 15 seats to romp home victorious while in 2012 it was the Congress’s turn to climb on the victory podium as it won 10 seats in Kangra which has an electorate of 13.7 lakhs which is the highest in the State.
Kangra is also the biggest swing state in Himachal as it’s electorate have rarely taken the middle path or given a fractured mandate. The Kangra voter has either catapulted a party to power or dumped it to the ground and they have been pretty consistent in this.
With both parties being riddled with factionalism and rebels in the fray it will be interesting to see which party emerges unscathed at the hustings in Kangra because that party is sure to rule the state for the next five years.
Amongst the 91 candidates in the fray for 15 seats in Kangra their are rebel candidates from both the Congress and the BJP but it’s the ruling party which is facing dissidence in crucial seats such as Fatehpur, Dharamshala, Indora, Kangra and Dehra . The Congress just has one rebel candidate in Sullah and thus is better placed in Kangra district than the BJP.
The rebels are sure to act as spoilsport for sitting cabinet ministers like Rakesh Pathania in Fatehpur whose constituency has been changed from Nurpur to Fatehpur and given the open dissent the BJP would be lucky to retain even one of the two with Kirpal Parmar former Rajya Sabha MP from the BJP pitching in as an independent. In Dharamshala the sitting BJP MLA Vishal Nehria was denied the party ticket making him stand as an independent representing the strong Gaddi community.
The story is no different in Indora, Dehra and Kangra where the BJP high command was unable to convince the rebels to withdraw from the contest and it could undermine the party’s chances in kangra district and eventually the state.
Fatehpur was won by the Congress just one year back in the bypolls. The swapping of constituencies of sitting MLA’S by the BJP in key assembly segments of Nurpur, Fatehpur, Jwalamukhi and Dehra in district Kangra apart from Shimla urban where sitting MLA and cabinet minister Suresh Bhardwaj was made to vacate his seat in favour of greenhorn Sanjay sood are sure to effect the BJP’S chances though the core committee of the BJP incharge of ticket allotments would think otherwise.
Suresh Bhardwaj has now been given the formidable task of dislodging the current MLA Anirudh from Shimla rural which is a known congress bastion.
But it is Kangra and its electorate who will decide which way the pendulum swings in Himachal though some pollsters are of the view that Kangra, Mandi and Shimla which send almost 50% of the total strength of the Vidhan Sabha-33 out of 68 MLA’S to the assembly – are the deciding districts.
Coming back to Kangra in 2007 when Dhumal became the CM the BJP won 9 seats from Kangra and with the support of 1 BSP MLA it was able to form the government.
However just like in 2012 in 2003 the Congress won over 10 seats from the nerve centre of himachal politics (Kangra) and wrested power from the BJP. Thus all eyes will be on the Kangra and the way the district votes.
Going by the past record of the state and the district it’s the Congress’s turn to win Kangra and through it the state. is firmly in favour of the Congress to come back to power but with the likes of J.P Nadda, Anurag Thakur, current CM Jai Ram Thakur and above all Prime Minister Narendra Modi touring the state aggressively the tables could be turned on the Congress in the tiny hill state.
