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Wednesday, March 29, 2023

As double engine steamrolls opposition in UP & AAP sweeps Punjab, Congress buries itself deeper

As the election results poured in from the 5 States – which was billed as a semifinal of sorts by the pollsters – the BJP retained all 4 states in which it was in power most significantly UP. AAP created a record in Punjab by winning  92 seats catapulting Kejriwal  and his party  to the forefront  of national  politics  around which the rest of the regional players could rally.

The suicidal mission of the Gandhi’s with Sidhu has been executed to the hilt.They have executed their plan of self annihilation with perfection paving the way for Aam Aadmi party to run amock and achieve a landslide victory. The likes of Badal’s Majithia’s Sidhu’s Channi’s and Amarinder’s  have bitten the dust signalling the dawn of a new era in Punjab. However the big story is the return of the incumbent CM Yogi Adityanath in UP – which plays a crucial role in the country’s  politics – breaking a 37 year old jinx. 

It took the combine effort of Modi and Yogi to break this anti incumbency stranglehold in a complex State like Uttar pradesh dominated by caste, religion & inter caste politics. The Modi Yogi duo brushed aside these factors and overrode the opposition storm with a thumping majority rewriting history after three and a half decades by winning consecutive elections.

Suraksha, Samridhi and Samaan slogan and its deliverence on the ground ensured BJP’S victory in UP as the woman voter put their hand up and voted for Modi Yogi duo. 11 crore toilets built by Modi bringing self respect back to the woman had a telling effect on the UP woman voting for the BJP. Mayawati’s decimation due to the Dalit vote shift  has been significant. Law & order, woman security, development  schemes and the great  infrastructure  push enabled Yogi to beat the anti incumbency and win a second term inspite of a vastly improved performance  by the Samajwadi party.

The Congress has been pulverized in UP. Priyanka Gandhi’s image has taken a battering and the Gandhi’s have nowhere to hide as Uttarakhand  which was supposed to be their best bet  has also slipped out of their hands even though Dhami the sitting CM of the BJP lost his seat which was the only solace for the Congress. Harish Rawat the  former CM of Uttarakhand who was also incharge of Punjab when the Amarinder Sidhu feud was playing out in the open also  lost which epitomises the plight of the Congress and their lack of political acumen particularly the Gandhis.

Modi and Yogi retaining Uttar pradesh is crucial for the BJP as the State sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha and with Yogi firmly entrenched on the CM’s chair for the next 5 years it will make the task of Modi easier heading into the 2024 Lok Sabha elections which are just over 2 years away. 

Lutyens media, pseudo seculars and some prominent news channels and their anchors  who were hoping and making us believe that Modi and Yogi’s agenda was  synonymous  with Hindutva, ram mandir and divisive politics, and thus take a beating had their hopes  dashed to the ground and their pain was evident. 

A loss in UP would have been interpreted by the political pundits as a referendum on Modi and the opposition along with  Lutyens media would have been baying for his blood and wasted no time in demanding his resignation. 

Another reason why the UP results are crucial for Modi is the election of the President of India which is round the corner as the present incumbent’s tenure comes to an end in July. Any setback in UP would have an adverse effect on Modi and BJP’s endeavour to put a candidate of their choice in the Presidential chair due to the intricate arithmetic involved for the election to the first office. 

An MLA of UP carries 208 votes – which is the maximum for any State in the Presidential ballot which proves decisive in the election of the President. Thus UP carries 83,824 votes and the 274 MLA’s of Yogi Adityanath will make things easier for Modi  in the face of a combined opposition.

With the Congress’s total  obliteration from the political Canvas of the country with just faction ridden Rajasthan to hold on thanks to it’s  dynastic leadership,  it will be interesting to see how the second rung of party leadership  or the G-21 react to this humiliation at the hustings.Do they become more vocal for a change of leadership  or do they change horses. Manish Tewari the Congress  leader from Punjab  made his displeasure  known when the Gandhi’s were playing the bizarre  game of musical chairs in Punjab and it will be interesting  to see whether  he deserts the Congress  like Scindia. Then there is Sachin Pilot who is at loggerheads  with Ashok Gehlot and Gulab Nabi Azad who is peeved with the Gandhis. 

As things stand , 2024 does not augur well for the opposition with Kejriwal  the only glimmer of hope with 2 states under his belt.

The regional  players  getting  together with the oldest national  party – which has now been reduced to a regional status – to defeat Modi in 2024 looks a tall order and nearly impossible but this will not deter Lutyens media & Modi haters from hallucinating and conjuring up new permutations and combinations to defeat Modi.

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Aman Gupta
Aman Gupta
Political Editor, Samast Bharat magazine


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