The year 2024 witnessed two important election processes in India, one for the Lok Sabha (in April-June) and the other for the two Legislative assemblies in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir (in September-October). The mandate of both these elections brought to the limelight political narratives contrary to each other. Now elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand are perceived to confirm the actual and realistic narrative in context of the mood of the nation in regard to its onward march for the next five years. Therefore, the would-be mandate of these elections in the month of November 2024 assumes a lot of political significance and value.
Out of the two elections in the two states of Maharashtra and Jharkhand, it is the state of Maharashtra that has gained more attention and focus in the debates and discussions in the political circles, media debates and on social media. The focus has definitely shifted from other issues towards Maharashtra which is currently considered as the main hub of political and electoral activities at the national level. It is politically and electorally the second biggest state of India after Uttar Pradesh. Population and area wise, it is one of the biggest states of India. It sends 48 parliamentarians to the Lok Sabha and has a State Assembly comprising 288 members. In both cases it is the second biggest state of the nation.
Moreover, the contribution of the state to the national GDP is the highest ie. almost 14% while UP’s and TN’s contribution to the national GDP is above 8% (second highest). Mumbai, the capital of Maharashtra is known as the financial capital of India. Politically speaking, Maharashtra comprises varied regions like Vidarbha, Marathwada, North Maharashtra, Western Maharashtra, Mumbai and Konkan. Maharashtra has played a key role during the independence movement of the nation. Movements in regard to social emancipation & welfare, women empowerment and educational leadership were led by great people in this state leading the whole nation to follow suit.
Maharashtra is also the founding ground of the ideology of Hindutva and strong cultural nationalism. Despite this fact, it remained a bastion for the Congress for a long time. The BJP and the other Hindutva forces gained ground in the state slowly and steadily during the 1990s when they formed the government in the state and started sending huge representations to the Lok Sabha. The turn of events post 2014 mandate at the Centre and in the state saw a number of changes in the socio-political spectrum of the state. However, these changes have not been consolidated till date due to the political vicissitudes of various nature.
Lok Sabha elections saw a tense battle between the two main political fronts in Maharashtra. The Indi-Alliance (known as Maha Vikas Agadi-MVA in Maharashtra) won 30 Lok Sabha seats in the recently held elections. The NDA (known as Maha Yuti-MY in Maharashtra) won the other 18 seats. However, there was not a great vote shift from the MY towards the MVA in the state. Tactical voting by a few communities played a key role in making the MVA a major beneficiary at the hustings. In addition, the negative campaign conducted by the Indi-allliance headed by Congress and its echo-system during the elections in regard to issues like ‘kisan-jawan-sanvidhan’ also played its role.
BJP, the leading partner in the MY, though got 26% of the total votes (almost the same that it got in the earlier LS election) yet it couldn’t translate it in the number of seats it won. While it won 9 LS seats, its strength got reduced by 50%. The Shiv Sena headed by CM Eknath Shinde won 7 seats with excellent strike rate. However, the NCP headed by Ajit Pawar showed a dismal performance with only one seat.
As against this, the Congress with a small increase in its share of votes won 13 LS seats while its partner, the NCP headed by Sharad Pawar, also showed a far better performance with 8 seats. However, the Shiv Sena headed by Udhav Thakerey, with a far below strike rate, won 9 LS seats. These results coupled with the nationwide Lok Sabha results in June 2024, in which the BJP got 240 seats and Congress 99 seats, the Indi-alliance, Congress and their echo-system tried to interpret the mandate as a ‘victory for Congress’ and a ‘defeat for BJP’. It was their persistent narrative that the mood of the nation had changed, the voters had rejected the BJP and that it was on a sliding phase.
The oath of Modi led NDA government for the third time in June 2024 wasn’t welcomed by the Congress and the Indi-alliance who marketed the narrative that it was a ‘moral defeat’ for BJP and PM Modi both. They tried every trick under their belt to boycott the oath ceremony, disrupt the proceedings of the parliament and went to the extent of creating chaos and mayhem at a national level consequent upon the mandate of the Lok Sabha. They spoke all abusive words about PM Modi, BJP and NDA and accused them of hijacking the mandate of the people.
For all of them, the subsequent state elections in Haryana and J&K were a gifted opportunity to prove their point that the BJP was on its way out from the saddle to clear routes for the Congress to take over, to start with from Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir. They once again manufactured the narrative of “kisan-jawan-pahalwan-sanvidhan” to hoodwink and misguide the voters in the two states. However, the results in both these states dashed the artificial narrative of Congress and it saw one of its worst reversals in recent history. While BJP retained power for the third time in Haryana in a row with the best ever number of seats, it improved both its vote share and number of seats in Jammu and Kashmir.
The Congress has come out as a major loser in both these two states. In J&K, its number has come down to an all time low (6) in the state Assembly and it didn’t even join the NC-led government in the tough political circumstances that were created for it. All its fake narratives against BJP-Modi-NDA, manufactured and marketed by its partners and the echo-system, were dashed, dusted and done away with. Neither the Congress nor their echo-system could justify the results of these elections in the context of their out of proportion narratives against the BJP and the government. Moreover, the BJP sought to clarify that the reduced strength it got in the Lok Sabha elections in June 2024 was only an aberration and the people of the nation were solidly behind the leadership of the nation represented by PM Modi.
Elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand are supposed to determine the veracity and correctness of the two political narratives, one propounded by the BJP and its allies and the other circulated by the Congress and its allies. In Jharkhand, the present government led by the JMM is facing a terrible anti-incumbency factor, issues relating to bad governance and the alleged corruption charges against it. The JMM led Indi-alliance in the state is precariously pitted against the NDA led by the enthused BJP. There is a likelihood that the Indi-alliance led by JMM is shown the door by the voters this time.
In such a scenario, Maharashtra elections assume great importance for both the alliances in the state. BJP among the six political parties in the two alliances will be fighting the maximum number of seats (above 150) followed by Shiv Sena and NCP with around 80 and 50 seats respectively. The three parties in the other alliance, Congress, UBatha Shiv Sena and the NCP (SP) will be contesting an equal number of seats among themselves (a minimum of 90 each). The other smaller parties in the two alliances, who have their influences in their respective pockets, are also getting a few seats to fight.
The voting in Jharkhand will be held on 13th and 20th November whereas Maharashtra will go to the polls in a single phase on 20th November. The results will be declared on 23rd November 2024. Every single opinion maker, analyst, pollster and the political pundit this time is extra cautious in putting out his or her assessment of the number of seats going to each alliance and party. They have a terrible experience of their Lok Sabha and Haryana predictions which didn’t at all match with the actual results.
The mandate in all circumstances will establish the correctness of the narratives that will be put to test before the court of the people. It will also decide about the survival issue of many leaders and parties active in Maharashtra & Jharkhand politics. The most satisfying factor would be that the final say in this regard would be with the voters, and none else, who will chalk out the next course of national narrative.
