It seems likely that there will be a hullabaloo over OXFAM’s reported claim that bottom 50% of IND pay 64.3% of GST. A cursory analysis of OXFAM’s (atrociously researched) reported reveals clever wordplay and accounting shenanigans that will make a Goldman banker blush.

First examine the above claim mathematically. OXFAM says that the bottom 50% of Bharatiya’s pay 6.7% of their income as GST. It is being reported that this translates to 64.3% of all GST revenue. Something OXFAM also highlights as indicative inference (see report below).

Average monthly GST revenue in FY22 was 123,585 crs. If the above claim is true, it means that 64.3% of 123,585 cr= 79465 crs is equal to 6.7% of the total monthly income of the bottom 50% of Bharatiya’s.

Assuming there are 70 cr Bharatiya’s in the bottom 50% (total population of 140 cr), this implies a monthly income of 79465/6.7%/70= Rs 16943 per month per Bharatiya in the bottom 50%. Or an annual income of Rs 203,322 per Bharatiya in the bottom 50%.

This is absurd. IND GDP/capita at current prices is Rs 172,913. If above claim of bottom 50% Bharatiya’s contributing 64.3% of GST were true, it would imply that bottom 50% of Bharatiya’s have annual income higher than the per capita GDP/GNP of IND. This is mathematically impossible.

Herein lies the trickery and wordplay that OXFAM has used to imply this sensationalist inference. OXFAM does not say that this is true for all GST revenue. Only that this is true for GST revenue contributed by the goods that it studied.

But instead of clearly specifying this and the goods that it has studied, it buries the details in a footnote at the end of the report. Nor does it reveal the source from where it got the contribution of individual goods to GST revenue, something central to its analysis.

While there is no harm in questioning the level of GST slabs, misrepresenting data and fanning sensationalism by using clever wordplay discredits the organization and its capabilities.

This also substantiates the hypothesis that OXFAM India is bad faith actor that uses dodgy statistics to push its narrow agenda, not very different from the usual tribe of NRI journalists/economists/think tankers.

(This article has been compiled from the tweet thread posted by @DivaJain2 on Oct 11, 2022, with minor edits to improve readability and conform to HinduPost style guide)